出色文化全球化的反噬_原文注釋與參考資料

出色文化全球化的反噬_原文注釋與參考資料

註釋

序章｜早知今日，或許我們會做出不同的選擇

  1. Senator Biden speaking on measure to authorize extension of nondiscriminatory treatment to the People’s Republic of China, Congressional Record, Senate, bound edition, vol. 146, part 13, 18331–18389, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CRECB-2000-pt13/html/CRECB-2000-pt13-Pg18331-7.htm. Further senatorial quotes in this section are from the same source.
  2. Jannuzi interview with the author, October 18, 2023.
  3. “To Paris, US Looks Like a ‘Hyperpower,’” International Herald Tribune, February 5, 1999, https://www.nytimes.com/1999/02/05/news/to-paris-us-looks-like-a-hyperpower.html. The term was coined by French Foreign Minister Hubert Védrine.
  4. Transcript of the Senate debate can be found here: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CRECB-2000-pt13/html/CRECB-2000-pt13-Pg18331-7.htm.
  5. Henry Rowen, “The Short March: China’s Road to Democracy,” National Interest, Fall 1996, https://nationalinterest.org/article/the-short-march-chinas-road-to-democracy-416. In the event, China reached the $7,000 mark in 2013, two years earlier than expected, just as Xi Jinping was settling into power.
  6. George W. Bush, “A Distinctly American Internationalism,” remarks at Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, Simi Valley, California, November 19, 1999, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/technology/1999/11/19/text-of-remarks-prepared-for-delivery-by-texas-gov-george-w-bush-at-ronald-reagan-presidential-library-simi-valley-calif-on-november-19-1999/1e893802-88ce-40de-bcf7-a4e1b6393ad2/.
  7. “World GDP (Constant Dollars 2015),” World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.
  8. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ import price index, Chinese imports in aggregate cost Americans no more in 2023 than they had in 2003: https://data.bls.gov/PDQWeb/ei.
  9. Xavier Jaravel and Erick Sager, “What Are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the US and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models,” Working Paper No. 2019-68, Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August 2019, 5, footnote 7, http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2019.068.
  10. Ben S. Bernanke et al., “International Capital Flows and the Returns to Safe Assets in the United States, 2003–2007,” International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 2011, https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2011/1014/ifdp1014.pdf; Carol Bertaut et al., “ABS Inflows to the United States and the Global Financial Crisis,” International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1028, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August 2011, https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2011/1028/ifdp1028.pdf.
  11. Anne Case and Angus Deaton, Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism (Princeton University Press, 2020), 2–7.
  12. Case and Deaton, Deaths of Despair, 220.
  13. “Monetary Policy Report,” Bank of England, November 2019, 34, https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-report/2019/november/monetary-policy-report-november-2019.pdf.
  14. “Exit Polls,” CNN, updated November 23, 2016, https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls.
  15. Dani Rodrik, “Why Does Globalization Fuel Populism? Economics, Culture, and the Rise of Right-Wing Populism,” Annual Review of Economics 13, no. 1 (2021): 139, https://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rodrik/files/why_does_globalization_fuel_populism.pdf.
  16. “Trade, Percentage of Gross Domestic Product,” World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS?locations=1W.
  17. “Banks from All Reporting Countries; Consolidated Total Claims in All Currencies with Residents of All Countries, Etc.,” Consolidated Banking Statistics, Bank of International Settlements, https://data.bis.org/topics/CBS/BIS,WS_CBS_PUB,1.0/Q.S.5A.4R.F.C.A.A.TO1.A.5J.
  18. Yasmeen Abutaleb, Rick Noack, and Toluse Olorunnipa, “Biden Says He Might Meet with Putin—but Not Now,” Washington Post, December 1, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/01/macron-biden-warning-western-alliance/.
  19. Dimon spoke at a meeting on June 13, 2024, with the Washington Post editorial board, with author in attendance.
  20. Glenn Hubbard, The Wall and the Bridge: Fear and Opportunity in Disruption’s Wake (Yale University Press, 2022), 12.
  21. Paul Krugman, “Globalization: What Did We Miss?,” in Meeting Globalization’s Challenges: Policies to Make Trade Work for All, ed. Luis A. V. Catao and Maurice Obstfeld (International Monetary Fund and Princeton University Press, 2019), 118.
  22. Paul Krugman, “How Economists Like Me Got Globalization Wrong,” Bloomberg Opinion, October 10, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2019-10-10/inequality-globalization-and-the-missteps-of-1990s-economics.
  23. From 1996 to 2002, the federal budget recorded a surplus four times and posted a negligible deficit twice. Congressional Budget Office’s budget and economic outlook historical data is available at https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data#2.
  24. Mario Draghi, “Economic Policy in a Changing World,” Volcker Award acceptance speech, National Association of Business Economics Economic Policy Conference, February 15, 2024, https://files.constantcontact.com/668faa28001/a33105a7-25c1-4102-9a8e-f7becb95e8c3.pdf.
  25. Hubbard interview with the author, November 18, 2023.
  26. Froman interview with the author, December 8, 2023.
  27. Thomas L. Friedman, “Read All About It,” New York Times, January 12, 1997, 17.
  28. Rush Doshi, The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order (Oxford University Press, 2021), 54–55.
  29. Paul Ryan, “Paul Ryan Says Even MAGA Diehards Believe Trump Can’t Win in 2024,” interview by David Marchese, New York Times Magazine, March 3, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/06/magazine/paul-ryan-interview.html.
  30. Susan Shirk, Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise (Oxford University Press, 2023), 14.
  31. Joshua Cooper Ramo, “The Committee to Save the World,” Time, February 15, 1999.
  32. Rubin interview with the author, September 26, 2023.

第 1 章｜世界霸權

  1. Associated Press TV footage of summit arrivals, available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCXBGBMvMnY.
  2. William J. Clinton, “Remarks in Littleton, Colorado,” June 19, 1997, in Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, book I for 1997 (US Government Printing Office, 1998), 762–767, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PPP-1997-book1/html/PPP-1997-book1-doc-pg762.htm.
  3. E. J. Dionne Jr., “Great Countries Don’t Boast,” Washington Post, June 27, 1997, A25; Steven Pearlstein and Paul Blustein, “In the Best of Both Worlds, Consider a Third Option,” Washington Post, June 23, 1997, A12; Steven R. Weisman, “The Big Boys in Denver,” New York Times, June 24, 1997, 18.
  4. Samuel R. Berger and Daniel K. Tarullo, “Memorandum for the President,” June 16, 1997, declassified, Clinton Presidential Records, https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/100496.
  5. Bill Clinton, My Life (Alfred A. Knopf, 2004), 758.
  6. Lawrence Summers, “Promoting Global Financial Stability,” speech, Institute for International Economics, June 12, 1997, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sp061297.
  7. John Kifner, “Mao’s Heir Finds Path: Wall Street,” New York Times, November 1, 1997, https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/world/110197us-china.html.
  8. White House, “Meeting with Russian President Yeltsin,” memorandum of conversation, June 20, 1997, https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/16837-document-10-memorandum-conversation-meeting.
  9. Stephanie Baker, “Russia: Deal on Paris Club Entry Seen as Political Victory,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, June 9, 1997, https://www.rferl.org/a/1085238.html.
  10. George H. W. Bush, “Remarks at the Yale University Commencement Ceremony in New Haven, Connecticut,” May 27, 1991, in Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, book I for 1991 (US Government Printing Office, 1992), 565, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PPP-1991-book1/html/PPP-1991-book1-doc-pg565.htm.
  11. Gwen Ifill, “The 1992 Campaign: The Democrats; With Reservations, Clinton Endorses Free-Trade Pact,” New York Times, October 5, 1992, A1; Peter Behr, “Clinton’s Conversion on NAFTA,” Washington Post, September 19, 1993, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1993/09/19/clintons-conversion-on-nafta/3a5b9cb5-dfc8-4b5c-9ae6-30781f0a99fc/.
  12. William J. Clinton Presidential History Project, “Interview with David Kusnet,” Miller Center, University of Virginia, 35–36, https://s3.amazonaws.com/web.poh.transcripts/ohp_2010_0319_kusnet.pdf.
  13. Waldman interview with the author, September 11, 2023.
  14. Katz interview with the author, January 13, 2025.
  15. White House, “Remarks by President Clinton, President Bush, President Carter, President Ford, and Vice President Gore in Signing of NAFTA Side Agreements,” September 14, 1993, https://clintonwhitehouse6.archives.gov/1993/09/1993-09-14-remarks-by-clinton-and-former-presidents-on-nafta.html.
  16. Waldman interview with the author, September 11, 2023.
  17. NAFTA Debate, CNN, transcript, November 9, 1993, https://ggallarotti.web.wesleyan.edu/govt155/goreperot.htm.
  18. Kenneth J. Cooper, “House Approves US-Canada-Mexico Trade Pact 234–200, Giving Clinton Big Victory,” Washington Post, November 18, 1993, A1.
  19. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All Employees Manufacturing,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated January 10, 2025, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP#0.
  20. Jiwon Choi et al., “Local Economic and Political Effects of Trade Deals: Evidence from NAFTA,” American Economic Review 114, no. 6 (2024): 1540–1575, https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20220425.
  21. “Meeting with Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and Three Others re China,” declassified memorandum of conversation, Oval Office, July 13, 1995, Clinton Presidential Records, https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/101840.
  22. Reuters, “Beijing Blasts US, Gingrich,” Washington Post, July 11, 1995, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1995/07/12/beijing-blasts-us-gingrich/9ed2b014-fc0c-48b2-886e-981ad4d048b5/.
  23. John F. Harris, “Clinton, Jiang Confer,” Washington Post, October 24, 1995, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1995/10/25/clinton-jiang-confer/8609ca72-a44d-4977-8757-f0576709a0aa/.
  24. William J. Clinton Presidential History Project, “Interview with Mickey Kantor,” Miller Center, University of Virginia, 46, https://s3.amazonaws.com/web.poh.transcripts/ohp_2002_0628_kantor.pdf.
  25. William J. Clinton Presidential History Project, “Interview with Sandy Berger,” Miller Center, University of Virginia, 111, https://s3.amazonaws.com/web.poh.transcripts/ohp_2005_0324_berger.pdf.
  26. William J. Clinton, “The President’s News Conference in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,” July 3, 1998, in Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, book II for 1998 (US Government Printing Office, 1999): 1177–1178, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PPP-1998-book2/html/PPP-1998-book2-doc-pg1174.htm.
  27. “Vice President’s Meeting with Chinese President Jiang Zemin,” declassified memorandum of conversation, November 16, 1998, Clinton Presidential Records, https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/101542.
  28. Douglas Irwin, Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy (University of Chicago Press, 2017), 667.
  29. Justin R. Pierce and Peter K. Schott, “The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment,” American Economic Review 106, no. 7 (2016): 4–6, in online appendix, https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20131578.
  30. Karen Lee Scrivo, “Foreign Affairs—Door-to-Door Diplomacy,” National Journal, May 20, 2000.
  31. Barshefsky interview with the author, April 19, 2023.
  32. Assessment of the Economic Effects on the United States of China’s Accession to the WTO (US International Trade Commission, 1999), xx, https://www.usitc.gov/publications/docs/pubs/332/PUB3229.PDF.
  33. Charlene Barshefsky, in Hearing Before the Committee on Agriculture of the House of Representatives, 106th Congress, Second Session, “The Administration’s Proposal for Permanent Normal Trade Relations with China,” May 17, 2002, 45, https://commdocs.house.gov/committees/ag/hag10652.000/hag10652_0f.htm.
  34. William J. Clinton, “Address Before a Joint Session of Congress on Administration Goals,” February 17, 1993, in Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, book I for 1993 (US Government Printing Office, 1994): 115, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PPP-1993-book1/html/PPP-1993-book1-doc-pg113-2.htm.
  35. William J. Clinton Presidential History Project, “Interview with Anthony Lake,” Miller Center, University of Virginia, 11, https://s3.amazonaws.com/web.poh.transcripts/ohp_2002_0521_lake.pdf.
  36. William J. Clinton Presidential History Project, “Interview with Warren Christopher and Strobe Talbott,” Miller Center, University of Virginia, 31, https://s3.amazonaws.com/web.poh.transcripts/ohp_2002_0415_christophertalbott.pdf.
  37. Donnie Radcliffe, “Governors’ Night Out; Tea, Toasts; Tea and Toasts at a Japanese Embassy Fete,” Washington Post, February 27, 1979, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/1979/02/27/governors-night-out/f94cfc8e-ad7e-45b0-8112-61775420a08d/; Elisabeth Bumiller, “Trade Routes to the Great Wall,” Washington Post, February 26, 1980, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/1980/02/26/trade-routes-to-the-great-wall/ed19458b-e5c9-47cb-9c34-0e702bf2e348/.
  38. Allan Janesch, “US Governors’ Travel Abroad ‘Opens the Door’ to Increased Exports and Jobs for Their States,” Business America, May 7, 1990.
  39. Kantor interview with the author, September 12, 2023.
  40. Elizabeth Kolbert, “The 1992 Campaign: Democrats; Both Kerreys Searching for Campaign Strategy,” New York Times, January 16, 1992, A16; David E. Rosenbaum with Keith Bradsher, “Candidates Playing to Mood of Protectionism,” New York Times, January 26, 1992, 1.
  41. William J. Clinton Presidential History Project, “Interview with Sandy Berger,” Miller Center, University of Virginia, 27, https://s3.amazonaws.com/web.poh.transcripts/ohp_2005_0324_berger.pdf.
  42. Waldman interview with the author, September 11, 2023.
  43. William J. Clinton, “A New Covenant for Economic Change: Remarks to Students at Georgetown University,” November 20, 1991, https://thetechnocratictyranny.com/PDFS/1991_Clinton_New_Covenant_economy.pdf.
  44. White House, “Remarks by Clinton, Bush, Carter, Ford, Gore.”
  45. Mohamed Younis, “Sharply Fewer in US View Foreign Trade as Opportunity,” Gallup, March 31, 2021, https://news.gallup.com/poll/342419/sharply-fewer-view-foreign-trade-opportunity.aspx.
  46. Kantor interview with the author, September 12, 2023.
  47. Memo from Christopher Dorval to Don Baer, “Trade,” Clinton Presidential Records, https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/34683. Confirmed in Baer interview with the author, October 13, 2023, that Dorval’s memo was written in January 1996.
  48. Memo from Dorval to Baer, “Trade.”
  49. Clinton, “Remarks in Littleton, Colorado,” 762–767.
  50. William J. Clinton Presidential History Project, “Interview with Sandy Berger,” Miller Center, University of Virginia, 28, https://s3.amazonaws.com/web.poh.transcripts/ohp_2005_0324_berger.pdf.
  51. Robert Reich, Locked in the Cabinet (Vintage Books, 1997), 104–105, 119.
  52. Reich, Locked in the Cabinet, 194–195.
  53. Reich, Locked in the Cabinet, 256–257.
  54. Jack Lew and Laura D’Andrea Tyson, “Status of the Workforce Development Legislation—Your GI Bill,” memorandum for the president, Office of Management and Budget, June 25, 1996, 18, Clinton Presidential Records, https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/item/show/32923.
  55. Rubin interview with the author, September 26, 2023.
  56. Joseph E. Stiglitz, Council of Economic Advisers, “Memorandum for the President: Second-Term Initiatives,” November 8, 1996, Clinton Presidential Records, https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/60798.
  57. Dani Rodrik, Has Globalization Gone Too Far? (Institute of International Economics, 1997), 11.
  58. Rodrik, Has Globalization Gone Too Far?, 6.
  59. Office of the Executive Secretary, “The President’s Trip to Denver, Colorado, for the Summit of the Eight,” June 19–22, 1997, declassified, Clinton Presidential Records, https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/100496.
  60. Daniel K. Tarullo, assistant to the president, speech to National Press Club, June 16, 1997, https://clintonwhitehouse3.archives.gov/WH/New/Eight/npc.html.
  61. US Department of the Treasury, “Promoting Global Financial Stability: The G7 Agenda—Deputy Secretary Lawrence H. Summers—Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC,” press release, June 12, 1997, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sp061297.
  62. Clinton, “Remarks in Littleton, Colorado,” 762–767.
  63. R. Barry Johnston et al., “Sequencing Capital Account Liberalization: Lessons from the Experiences in Chile, Indonesia, Korea and Thailand,” Working Paper No. 97/157, International Monetary Fund, November 1997, 29–32, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/wp97157.pdf.
  64. Robert Wade, “The Coming Fight over Capital Flows,” Foreign Policy, Winter 1998–1999, https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/olj/fp/fp_99war01.html.
  65. Alejandro Lopez-Mejia, “Large Capital Flows: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses,” Finance and Development, International Monetary Fund, September 1999, 1, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/1999/09/lopez.htm.
  66. “67th Annual Report,” Bank for International Settlements, June 9, 1997, 108, https://www.bis.org/publ/ar67f01.pdf.
  67. Robert Rubin and Jacob Weisberg, In an Uncertain World: Tough Choices from Wall Street to Washington (Random House, 2003), 217.
  68. Lopez-Mejia, “Large Capital Flows,” 4.
  69. Lopez-Mejia, “Large Capital Flows,” 18.
  70. Clinton, My Life, 806–807.
  71. Rubin and Weisberg, In an Uncertain World, 221.
  72. “Trading Analysis of October 27 and 28, 1997,” Division of Market Regulation, US Securities and Exchange Commission, September 1998, https://www.sec.gov/news/studies/tradrep.htm#:~:text=On%20Monday%2C%20October%2027%2C%20the,in%20the%20index%20since%201915.
  73. Rubin and Weisberg, In an Uncertain World, 230–234.
  74. White House, “Conversation with South Korean President Kim Young Sam,” memorandum of conversation, November 27, 1997, Clinton Presidential Records, https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/118552.
  75. Rubin and Weisberg, In an Uncertain World, 235.
  76. White House, “Telcon with Korean President-Elect Kim Dae-jung,” memorandum of telephone conversation, December 18, 1997, Clinton Presidential Records, https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/118555.
  77. Timothy Geithner, Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises (Crown, 2014), 61.
  78. Rubin and Weisberg, In an Uncertain World, 240.
  79. William J. Clinton, “Remarks to the Council on Foreign Relations in New York City,” September 14, 1998, in Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, book II for 1998 (US Government Printing Office, 1999), 1575, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PPP-1998-book2/html/PPP-1998-book2-doc-pg1572.htm.
  80. Geithner, Stress Test, 66.
  81. James Harrigan, “The Impact of the Asia Crisis on US Industry: An Almost-Free Lunch?,” Economic Policy Review—Federal Reserve Bank of New York 6, no. 3 (2000): 79, https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/epr/00v06n3/0009harr.pdf.
  82. US Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, “Report to the President: Global Steel Trade: Structural Problems and Future Solutions,” July 2000, 1, 22, https://permanent.fdlp.gov/lps12229/lps12229/steelreport726.htm.
  83. Homi Kharas et al., “An Analysis of Russia’s 1998 Meltdown: Fundamentals and Market Signals,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 1 (2001): 2, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2001/01/2001a_bpea_kharas.pdf.
  84. White House, “President Boris Yeltsin of Russia,” declassified memorandum of telephone conversation, August 14, 1998, Clinton Presidential Records, https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/101533.
  85. Taylor Branch, The Clinton Tapes (Simon & Schuster, 2009), 512.
  86. White House, “President Boris Yeltsin of Russia,” declassified memorandum of telephone conversation, September 12, 1998, Clinton Presidential Records, https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/101535.
  87. James Boughton, “Russia: From Rebirth to Crisis to Recovery,” in Tearing Down Walls: The International Monetary Fund, 1990–1999 (International Monetary Fund, 2012), 343.
  88. Michael Waldman, POTUS Speaks (Simon & Schuster, 2000), 232.
  89. William J. Clinton, “Remarks to the Council,” 1572.
  90. Branch, The Clinton Tapes, 513.
  91. Michael Siconolfi, Anita Raghavan, and Mitchell Pacelle, “All Bets Are Off: How the Salesmanship and Brainpower Failed at Long-Term Capital,” Wall Street Journal, November 16, 1998, A1.
  92. This figure includes off-balance-sheet derivatives. Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, transcript, Federal Reserve, September 29, 1998, 111, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19980929meeting.pdf.
  93. Meeting on September 29, 1998, of the Federal Open Market Committee, 108.
  94. Gary Schinasi, “Systemic Aspects of Recent Turbulence in Mature Markets,” Finance and Development, International Monetary Fund, March 1999, 3, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/1999/03/schinasi.htm.
  95. Meeting on September 29, 1998, of the Federal Open Market Committee, 100.
  96. Meeting on September 29, 1998, of the Federal Open Market Committee, 100.

第 2 章｜誰的街頭？

  1. Wallach interview with the author, September 6, 2023.
  2. Moises Naim, “Lori’s War,” Foreign Policy, Spring 2000, 30.
  3. Wallach interview with the author, September 6, 2023.
  4. “Statement by H. E. William J. Clinton, President,” World Trade Organization, May 1998, https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/minist_e/min98_e/anniv_e/clinton_e.htm.
  5. “Statement by William J. Clinton.”
  6. Richard Baldwin, The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization (Belknap, 2016), 1–7.
  7. Charlene Barshefsky, “Toward Seattle: The Next Round and America’s Stake in the Trading System,” Council on Foreign Relations, October 19, 1999, 6, accessed on USTR website.
  8. PBS Commanding Heights transcript of interview with Lori Wallach, https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/shared/minitext/int_loriwallach.html.
  9. William J. Clinton, “Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress on the State of the Union,” January 19, 1999, American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara, https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-before-joint-session-the-congress-the-state-the-union-6.
  10. So named for the 1996 WTO ministerial that was held in Singapore. Craig VanGrasstek, The History and Future of the World Trade Organization (WTO, 2013), 373.
  11. Barshefsky, “Toward Seattle.”
  12. Naim, “Lori’s War,” 50.
  13. Lori Wallach personal papers, Folder “WTO-Seattle-Road to Seattle.”
  14. Helene Cooper, “Activists’ Boot Camp Teaches How to Confront Trade Leaders,” Wall Street Journal, September 20, 1999, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB937779254498198737.
  15. Lori Wallach personal papers, “Ruckus Camp Notice,” July 12, 1999.
  16. “Seattle General Strike Project,” University of Washington, https://depts.washington.edu/labhist/strike/.
  17. Foster interview with the author, September 8, 2023.
  18. Foster interview with the author, September 8, 2023.
  19. Edward J. Wasilewski Jr., “A Look Back at the Kaiser Aluminum and United Steelworkers Dispute,” Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 30, 2003, https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/cwc/a-look-back-at-the-kaiser-aluminum-and-united-steelworkers-dispute.pdf.
  20. Foster interview with the author, September 8, 2023.
  21. Ron Judd, interview by Jeremy Simer, WTO History Project, University of Washington, https://depts.washington.edu/wtohist/interviews/Judd.pdf.
  22. Mike Dolan, interview by Jeremy Simer, WTO History Project, University of Washington, http://depts.washington.edu/wtohist/interviews/Dolan%20-%20Simer.htm.
  23. Lori Wallach personal papers, email to Michael Dolan, October 19, 1999.
  24. Lori Wallach personal papers, group email chain, July 13–23, 1999.
  25. Lori Wallach personal papers, email from Wallach to Dolan, October 14, 1999; Peter Bjarkman, “Fidel Castro and Baseball,” Society for American Baseball Research, March 25, 2016, https://sabr.org/bioproj/topic/fidel-castro-and-baseball/; Castro did not opt out of the conference until November 28, per Seattle Police Department, “After Action Report: World Trade Organization Ministerial Conference Seattle, Washington, November 29–December 3, 1999,” April 4, 2000, 31, https://media.cleveland.com/pdextra/other/Seattle%20PD%20after%20action%20report.pdf.
  26. Seattle Police Department, “After Action Report,” 10.
  27. Barshefsky interview with the author, September 12, 2023.
  28. Seattle Police Department, “After Action Report,” 18.
  29. Ronald G. Shafer, “Nervous in Seattle: Concerns Grow About Expected Anti-Trade Protests,” Wall Street Journal, August 13, 1999, A1.
  30. VanGrasstek, History of World Trade Organization, 385.
  31. VanGrasstek, History of World Trade Organization, 386.
  32. William J. Clinton Presidential History Project, “Interview with Charlene Barshefsky,” Miller Center, University of Virginia, 46, https://s3.amazonaws.com/web.poh.transcripts/ohp_2005_0302_barshefsky.pdf.
  33. Wallach interview with the author, August 9, 2023.
  34. Protesters complained that the WTO had elevated global trade rules above legitimate US efforts to protect endangered species. But the WTO ruled against the US for the manner in which it implemented the import ban, not the ban itself. The US provided Caribbean countries with financial and technical assistance and gave them longer to prepare for the new rules, benefits it did not extend to Asian countries. “The US lost the case, not because it sought to protect the environment but because it discriminated between WTO members,” the trade judges ruled: https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/envir_e/edis08_e.htm.
  35. Alex Tizon, “Monday, Nov. 29,” Seattle Times, December 5, 1999, A14.
  36. Seattle Police Department, “After Action Report,” 18–19.
  37. Wallach interview with the author, September 6, 2023.
  38. Rally footage, https://www.c-span.org/video/?153918-1/rally-march-global-justice.
  39. Seattle Police Department, “After Action Report,” 37.
  40. Seattle Police Department, “After Action Report,” 38–40.
  41. Seattle Police Department, “After Action Report,” 37–38.
  42. Seattle Police Department, “After Action Report,” 20.
  43. Alex Tizon, “Monday, Nov. 29,” Seattle Times, December 5, 1999, A14.
  44. “Countdown to Chaos in Seattle,” Seattle Times, December 5, 1999, B1.
  45. Wallach interview with the author, September 6, 2023.
  46. Shesol interview with the author, September 4, 2023.
  47. William J. Clinton, “Remarks by the President on Parental Leave,” White House, November 30, 1999, https://clintonwhitehouse4.archives.gov/textonly/WH/New/html/19991130.html. Video available at https://www.c-span.org/video/?153915-1/family-leave.
  48. “WTO—Seattle Ministerial 12/1/99 WTO Ministers’ Lunch Drafts,” Speechwriting Office, Jeff Shesol, Clinton Presidential Records, https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/12237.
  49. Shesol interview with author, September 4, 2023.
  50. “Schedule of the President for Tuesday, Nov. 30, 1999, Final Schedule,” Clinton Presidential Records, https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/12719; White House, “Press Briefing by United States Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky and National Economic Advisor Gene Sperling,” December 1, 1999, https://clintonwhitehouse3.archives.gov/WH/New/WTO-Conf-1999/briefings/19991201-1607.html.
  51. VanGrasstek, History of World Trade Organization, 390.
  52. Michael Paulson, “Clinton Says He Will Support Trade Sanctions for Worker Abuse,” Seattle Post-Intelligencer, December 1, 1999, 1.
  53. William J. Clinton Presidential History Project, “Interview with Charlene Barshefsky,” Miller Center, University of Virginia, 47, https://s3.amazonaws.com/web.poh.transcripts/ohp_2005_0302_barshefsky.pdf.
  54. Barshefsky interview with the author, September 12, 2023.
  55. William J. Clinton, “Remarks by the President to the Luncheon in Honor of the Ministers Attending the Meetings of the World Trade Organization,” White House, December 1, 1999, https://clintonwhitehouse3.archives.gov/WH/New/WTO-Conf-1999/remarks/19991201-1505.html.
  56. “Press Briefing by Barshefsky and Sperling,” 1.
  57. Wallach interview with the author, August 9, 2023.
  58. “Presidential Approval Ratings: Bill Clinton,” Gallup, https://news.gallup.com/poll/116584/presidential-approval-ratings-bill-clinton.aspx.
  59. Frank Newport, “Americans Favor China Trade Agreement, but Agree That Workers Could Be Hurt,” Gallup, November 30, 1999, https://news.gallup.com/poll/3439/americans-favor-china-trade-agreement-agree-workers-could-hurt.aspx.
  60. Barshefsky interview with the author, September 12, 2023.
  61. Naim, “Lori’s War,” 40.
  62. VanGrasstek, History of World Trade Organization, 394.
  63. William J. Clinton Presidential History Project, “Interview with Charlene Barshefsky,” Miller Center, University of Virginia, 46, https://s3.amazonaws.com/web.poh.transcripts/ohp_2005_0302_barshefsky.pdf.
  64. William J. Clinton Presidential History Project, “Interview with James Steinberg,” Miller Center, University of Virginia, 37, https://s3.amazonaws.com/web.poh.transcripts/steinberg_2008_taggedtranscript.pdf.
  65. Cassidy interview with the author, September 21, 2023.
  66. Seattle Police Department, “After Action Report,” 3–4.
  67. Seattle Police Department, “After Action Report,” 71.
  68. Seattle Police Department, “After Action Report,” 48–49.
  69. Thomas Friedman, “Senseless in Seattle,” New York Times, December 1, 1999, A23.
  70. Wallach interview with the author, September 12, 2023.
  71. Dolan interview with the author, September 21, 2023.
  72. Nash interview with the author, September 22, 2023.
  73. Nash interview with the author, September 22, 2023.
  74. William C. Rempel, Henry Weinstein, and Alan C. Miller, “Testimony Links Top China Official, Funds for Clinton,” Los Angeles Times, April 4, 1999, https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1999-apr-04-mn-24189-story.html.
  75. Taylor Branch, The Clinton Tapes: Wrestling History with the President (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2009), 544.
  76. Branch, The Clinton Tapes, 545.
  77. White House, “Joint Press Conference with President Clinton and Premier Zhu Rongji of the People’s Republic of China,” April 8, 1999, https://clintonwhitehouse4.archives.gov/WH/New/html/19990408-1109.html.
  78. Bob Davis and Lingling Wei, Superpower Showdown (Harper Business, 2020), 69.
  79. Thomas Pickering, under secretary of state, “Oral Presentation to the Chinese Government Regarding the Accidental Bombing of the PRC Embassy in Belgrade,” June 17, 1999, released July 6, 1999, US State Department, https://1997-2001.state.gov/policy_remarks/1999/990617_pickering_emb.html.
  80. Some of the details in this account are based on an interview with a former US government official with direct knowledge of the situation.
  81. Sperling interview with the author, October 12, 2023.
  82. Rush Doshi, The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order (Oxford University Press, 2021), 146.
  83. Lieberthal interview with the author, April 5, 2023.
  84. Doshi, The Long Game, 152–156.

第 3 章｜危機感

  1. Matt Marshall, “VC Geography: Financier’s Global Vision Leads Way; Silicon Valley Lives Changed by Globalization,” San Jose Mercury News, December 28, 2005, M1.
  2. William Booth, “School Voucher Initiative Roils Race,” Washington Post, July 19, 2000, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2000/07/19/school-voucher-initiative-roils-race/e036d38c-8983-41b0-b8ac-33bcefc2b4d6/.
  3. Oral history interview with General William H. Draper Jr., Harry S. Truman Library, National Archives January 11, 1972, https://www.trumanlibrary.gov/library/oral-histories/draperw#transcript.
  4. William H. Draper III, The Startup Game: Inside the Partnership Between Venture Capitalists and Entrepreneurs (Palgrave Macmillan, 2011), 13.
  5. “Our 40-Year Journey in China: 1979–2019,” United Nations Development Program, https://www.undp.org/china/publications/our-40-year-journey-china-1979-2019.
  6. Draper interview with the author, April 10, 2023.
  7. Draper III, The Startup Game, 139–140.
  8. Draper III, The Startup Game, 229.
  9. Draper III, The Startup Game, 229–230.
  10. Draper interview with the author, April 10, 2023.
  11. Draper email to author, December 23, 2022.
  12. Draper email to author, December 23, 2022.
  13. Baidu, Prospectus for Initial Public Offering of American Depositary Shares, August 4, 2005, 115, https://ir.baidu.com/static-files/15c8e098-e46f-4e22-85c7-d348e14df301.
  14. Draper interview with the author, April 10, 2023.
  15. Draper email to author, December 23, 2022.
  16. Draper interview with the author, April 10, 2023.
  17. David J. Lynch, “Emerging Middle Class Reshapes China,” USA Today, November 12, 2002, A13.
  18. Draper interview with the author, April 10, 2023.
  19. Michelle Tsai, “DFJ Affiliate ePlanet Winning Over Doubters,” Dow Jones Venture Capital Analyst, October 2005, https://webreprints.djreprints.com/sampleVCcr.pdf.
  20. Rieschel interview with the author, October 20, 2023. “Pat never gets the credit for really being the first. He was really the first person to set up an institutional Silicon Valley style partnership in China. And so Pat deserves the credit for being the first,” Rieschel said.
  21. Sebastian Mallaby, The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future (Penguin, 2022), 226.
  22. Mallaby, The Power Law, 228–231.
  23. Mallaby, The Power Law, 231–232.
  24. Rieschel interview with the author, October 20, 2023.
  25. “US capital, legal structures, and talent were central to the development of China’s digital economy,” concluded Mallaby, The Power Law, 233.
  26. “Full Text of Clinton’s Speech on China Trade Bill,” New York Times, March 9, 2000, https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/world/asia/030900clinton-china-text.html.
  27. Memo from Ken Lieberthal to Paul Orzulak, April 29, 2000, Clinton Presidential Records, https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/files/original/7d1a983fb4a7eb717d9a7d62d65239a1.pdf.
  28. The US trade deficit with China was more than $202 billion in 2005, compared with almost $84 billion in 2000, according to the Census Bureau: https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2005.
  29. Douglas Irwin, Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy (University of Chicago Press, 2017), 664.
  30. Brilliant interview with the author, October 24, 2023.
  31. Karen Lee Scrivo, “Foreign Affairs—Door-to-Door Diplomacy,” National Journal, May 20, 2000.
  32. “US Economists Sign Letter Supporting China’s WTO Entry,” Office of International Information Programs, US Department of State, April 26, 2000, https://usinfo.org/wf-archive/2000/000426/epf303.htm.
  33. “Xin Qiao Electronics,” China Labor Watch, January 2, 2000, https://chinalaborwatch.org/xin-qiao-electronics/.
  34. Juliet Eilperin and David Broder, “Despite UAW Threat, Low Risk Seen in China Vote,” Washington Post, May 24, 2000, A14.
  35. Matthew Vita and Juliet Eilperin, “China Trade Bill Gains Supporters; 10 Democrats, 4 Republicans Declare on Eve of House Vote,” Washington Post, May 24, 2000, A1.
  36. Bob Davis and Lingling Wei, Superpower Showdown: How the Battle Between Trump and Xi Threatens a New Cold War (Harper Business, 2020), 94.
  37. William J. Clinton, “Remarks by the President on Passage of Permanent Normal Trade Relations with China,” White House, May 24, 2000, https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-permanent-normal-trade-relations-with-china.
  38. Robert Samuelson, “Overselling the China Deal,” Washington Post, May 24, 2000, A37.
  39. William J. Clinton, “Remarks to the World Economic Forum and a Question-and-Answer Session in Davos, Switzerland,” January 29, 2000, in Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, book I for 2000 (US Government Printing Office, 2001), 150–161, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PPP-2000-book1/html/PPP-2000-book1-doc-pg150.htm.
  40. Anne Swardson, “Clinton Appeals for Compassion in Global Trade; World Economic Forum Told Don’t Leave ‘Little Guys’ Out,” Washington Post, January 30, 2000, A18.
  41. Bill Clinton, My Life (Alfred A. Knopf, 2004), 928.
  42. Taylor Branch, The Clinton Tapes: Wrestling History with the President (Simon & Schuster, 2009), 639.
  43. Stephen J. Hadley, ed., Hand-Off: The Foreign Policy George W. Bush Passed to Barack Obama (Brookings Institution Press, 2023), 418.
  44. “Excerpts from Bush’s Remarks on National Security and Arms Policy,” New York Times, May 24, 2000, A21; Condoleezza Rice, his secretary of state, was even more direct during the primary season, writing: “Trade in general can open up the Chinese economy and, ultimately, its politics, too. This view requires faith in the power of markets and economic freedom to drive political change, but it is a faith confirmed by experiences around the globe.” Condoleezza Rice, “Campaign 2000: Promoting the National Interest,” Foreign Affairs 79, no. 1 (2000): 45–62.
  45. George W. Bush, “Remarks to the Los Angeles World Affairs Council in Los Angeles, California,” May 29, 2001, in Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, book I for 2001 (US Government Printing Office, 2002), 593–598, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PPP-2001-book1/html/PPP-2001-book1-doc-pg593.htm.
  46. Jannuzi interview with the author, October 18, 2023.
  47. Jeremy Page, “Senators Bring US-Style Politics to China Village,” Reuters, August 10, 2001.
  48. Hadley, Hand-Off, 420.
  49. Paul Blustein, “142 Nations Reach Pact on Trade Negotiations,” Washington Post, November 15, 2001, A1.
  50. Irwin, Clashing over Commerce, 482.
  51. White House, “USTR Briefing on Steel: Press Briefing by US Trade Representative Robert Zoellick,” March 5, 2002, https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/03/text/20020305-10.html.
  52. George W. Bush Oral History Project, “Interview 2 with Karl Rove,” Miller Center, University of Virginia, 104, https://s3.amazonaws.com/web.poh.transcripts/Rove_Karl2.final3.pdf.
  53. “Trade Under Trump,” Gallup, 2019, 2, https://news.gallup.com/reports/267386/trade-under-trump-gallup-briefing.aspx.
  54. White House, “USTR Briefing on Steel.”
  55. Elizabeth Becker, “US Tariffs on Steel Are Illegal, World Trade Organization Says,” New York Times, November 11, 2003, https://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/11/business/us-tariffs-on-steel-are-illegal-world-trade-organization-says.html.
  56. Bergsten interview with the author, October 31, 2023.
  57. David J. Lynch, “Maryland Factory Feels Heat from China; Trade Prowess Raises Suspicions at US Firm,” USA Today, March 6, 2007.
  58. United States Trade Representative, “2003 Report to Congress on China’s WTO Compliance,” December 11, 2003, 3, https://ustr.gov/archive/assets/Document_Library/Reports_Publications/2003/asset_upload_file425_4313.pdf.
  59. USTR, “2003 Report to Congress,” 33.
  60. United States Trade Representative, “2022 Report to Congress on China’s WTO Compliance,” February 2023, 27, https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/2023-02/2022%20USTR%20Report%20to%20Congress%20on%20China’s%20WTO%20Compliance%20-%20Final.pdf.
  61. Cass Johnson, in Hearing Before the Committee on Small Business of the House of Representatives, 108th Congress, First Session, “The Effect of Foreign Currency Manipulation on Small Manufacturers and Exporters,” June 25, 2003, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-108hhrg92726/html/CHRG-108hhrg92726.htm.
  62. George W. Bush Oral History Project, “Interview with John Snow and Chris Smith,” Miller Center, University of Virginia, 97, https://s3.amazonaws.com/web.poh.transcripts/Snow_John.final2.pdf.
  63. “Snow Business: The Bush Administration’s Desire for Stronger Asian Currencies May Backfire,” The Economist, September 4, 2003; “Fuzzy Economic Thinking; Blaming Beijing,” Opinion, New York Times, September 3, 2003, https://www.nytimes.com/2003/09/03/opinion/fuzzy-economic-thinking-blaming-beijing.html.
  64. David Barboza and Joseph Kahn, “China No Longer to Peg Currency Only to Dollar,” New York Times, July 22, 2005, https://www.nytimes.com/2005/07/22/business/worldbusiness/china-no-longer-to-peg-currency-only-to-dollar.html.
  65. George W. Bush Oral History Project, “Interview with John Snow and Chris Smith,” Miller Center, University of Virginia, 99, https://s3.amazonaws.com/web.poh.transcripts/Snow_John.final2.pdf. The reference is to Senator Reed Smoot and Rep. Willis Hawley, principal authors of the disastrous legislation that raised US industrial and agricultural tariffs and ignited a global rush to protectionism.
  66. Matt Pottinger, Russell Gold, Michael M. Phillips, and Kate Linebaugh, “Oil Politics: Cnooc Drops Offer for Unocal, Exposing US-Chinese Tensions—Delay Imposed by Fierce Foes in Congress, Plus Missteps by Bidder, Doomed Move—Sale to Chevron All but Certain,” Wall Street Journal, August 3, 2005, A1.
  67. Paula Span, “The Many Lives of Stanley Pottinger,” Washington Post, May 13, 1995, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/1995/05/13/the-many-lives-of-stanley-pottinger/57bd1250-9066-4406-9665-69b168a59248/.
  68. Bob Woodward, The Secret Man (Simon & Schuster, 2005), 131–135.
  69. Pottinger interview with the author, July 11, 2023.
  70. Kaufman interview with the author, October 24, 2023.
  71. “WHO Issues a Global Alert About Cases of Atypical Pneumonia,” World Health Organization, March 12, 2003, https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2003_03_12-en.
  72. Matt Pottinger and Rebecca Buckman, “Holding Their Breath: A Mystery Illness Spreads in Asia, and So Does Fear—in Hong Kong, Empty Offices and Canceled Travel Plans; a Market for Bambi Masks—Official: It’s ‘Not Rampaging,’” Wall Street Journal, March 28, 2003, A1.
  73. Antonio Regalado, Matt Pottinger, and Betsy McKay, “Germ Warfare: Across the Globe, a Race to Prepare for SARS Round 2—amid Fears of New Outbreak, New Research, Assessment of Last Year’s Lessons—Culprits: Palm Civets and Labs,” Wall Street Journal, December 9, 2003, A1.
  74. Matt Pottinger, “Outraged Surgeon Forces China to Take a Dose of the Truth—Dr. Jiang Went Public to Put an End to SARS Coverup; Watching a Lie on TV,” Wall Street Journal, April 22, 2003, A1.
  75. Matt Pottinger, “Return of SARS Sparks Concerns About Lab Safety—Eight Cases Are Linked to Researchers in Beijing; WHO May Alter Guidelines,” Wall Street Journal, April 26, 2004, A13.
  76. Pottinger interview with the author, July 11, 2023.
  77. Matt Pottinger, “Mightier Than the Pen,” Wall Street Journal, December 15, 2005, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB113461636659623128.
  78. “A Virtual Conversation with Deputy National Security Advisor Matt Pottinger,” Ronald Reagan Foundation and Institute, September 30, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mSdp-fZEjo.

第 4 章｜中國衝擊

  1. R. C. Forrester, “Obion County,” Tennessee Encyclopedia, https://tennesseeencyclopedia.net/entries/obion-county/.
  2. Kate Bronfenbrenner et al., “Impact of US-China Trade Relations on Workers, Wages and Employment,” US-China Security Review Commission/US Trade Deficit Review Commission, June 30, 2001, ii, 18–19, https://govinfo.library.unt.edu/tdrc/research/china1.pdf.
  3. Figure for 2008 was nearly $54 billion. Data is from the Bureau of Economic Analysis database: https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=2&step=1&isuri=1#eyJhcHBpZCI6Miwic3RlcHMiOlsxLDIsMyw0LDUsNywxMF0sImRhdGEiOltbIlN0ZXAxUHJvbXB0MSIsIjEiXSxbIlN0ZXAxUHJvbXB0MiIsIjEiXSxbIlN0ZXAyUHJvbXB0MyIsIjEiXSxbIlN0ZXAzUHJvbXB0NCIsIjMwIl0sWyJTdGVwNFByb21wdDUiLCI0Il0sWyJTdGVwNVByb21wdDYiLCIxLDIiXSxbIlN0ZXA3UHJvbXB0OCIsWyIxMywxNCwxNSwxNiwxNywxOCwxOSwyMCwyMSwyMiwyMywyNCwyNSwyNiwyNywyOCwyOSwzMCwzMSwzMiwzMywzNCwzNSwzNiwzNywzOCwzOSw0MCw0MSw0Miw0Myw0OCw0OSw1Miw1NSw1Niw1OCw2MCw2MSw2NSw2NiJdXSxbIlN0ZXA4UHJvbXB0OUEiLFsiMiJdXSxbIlN0ZXA4UHJvbXB0MTBBIixbIjg1Il1dXX0=.
  4. David Autor of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Gordon Hanson of Harvard Kennedy School; and David Dorn of the University of Zurich collaborated on a series of research papers under the “China Shock” heading, available here: https://chinashock.info/.
  5. Daron Acemoglu et al., “Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s,” Journal of Labor Economics 34, no. S1, part 2 (2016): S147, https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/Import%20Competition%20and%20the%20Great%20US%20Employment%20Sag.pdf.
  6. Autor interview with the author, August 17, 2023.
  7. The Labor Department certified petitions seeking Trade Adjustment Assistance benefits for workers at each of these companies. Details available at https://www.citizen.org/article/trade-adjustment-assistance-database/.
  8. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
  9. US International Trade Commission, “Certain Passenger Vehicle and Light Truck Tires from China,” Investigation No. TA-421-7, July 2009, C-3, https://www.usitc.gov/publications/safeguards/pub4085.pdf.
  10. US International Trade Commission, “Certain Tires from China,” 62.
  11. McGuire interview with the author, November 15, 2023.
  12. Leath interview with the author, November 14, 2023.
  13. Leath interview with the author, November 14, 2023.
  14. Goodyear Corporate Responsibility Report, July 22, 2008.
  15. Waggoner interview with the author, September 25, 2023.
  16. Spending is described in Goodyear’s 1998 annual report and its 10-K reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission for 1999 and 2000.
  17. US International Trade Commission, “Certain Passenger Vehicle and Light Truck Tires from China,” Investigation Nos. 701-TA-522 and 731-TA-1258 (Final), August 2015, 51.
  18. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., Q3 2002 Earnings call, October 30, 2002.
  19. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., Q4 2002 Earnings call, April 3, 2003.
  20. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., 2003 Annual Report, 2–6, https://corporate.goodyear.com/content/dam/goodyear-corp/documents/annualreports/2003annual.pdf.
  21. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., 2009 Annual Report, 1, https://corporate.goodyear.com/content/dam/goodyear-corp/documents/annualreports/2009ar.pdf.
  22. Goodyear, 2009 Annual Report, 5.
  23. US International Trade Commission, “Certain Tires from China,” 51; Zaneta Lowe, “Opelika Tire Plant to Shut Down,” WTVM, April 13, 2009, https://www.wtvm.com/story/10174900/opelika-tire-plant-to-shut-down/.
  24. US General Accountability Office, “US-China Trade: The United States Has Not Restricted Imports Under the China Safeguard,” GAO-05-1056, September 2005, https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-05-1056.pdf.
  25. Barshefsky interview with the author, April 19, 2023.
  26. Zoellick interview with the author, November 1, 2023.
  27. Yeling Tan, Disaggregating China, Inc.: State Strategies in the Liberal Economic Order (Cornell University Press, 2021), 5–15.
  28. Tan, Disaggregating China, Inc., 10.
  29. Zoellick interview with the author, November 1, 2023.
  30. United States Trade Representative, “Report to Congress on China’s WTO Compliance,” December 11, 2007, 5, https://china.usc.edu/sites/default/files/article/attachments/2007%20China%20Report%20to%20Congress.pdf.
  31. Paul interview with the author, November 17, 2023.
  32. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., Form 8-K, June 15, 2009. The company reported a $60 million after-tax restructuring charge associated with the buyouts.
  33. Goodyear earnings call, July 30, 2009.
  34. John Bussey, “Get-Tough Policy on Chinese Tires Falls Flat,” Wall Street Journal, January 20, 2012, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970204301404577171130489514146.
  35. Barack Obama, “Remarks by the President in the State of the Union Address,” White House, January 24, 2012, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2012/01/24/remarks-president-state-union-address.
  36. Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Sean Lowry, “US Tire Tariffs: Saving Few Jobs at High Cost,” Policy Brief No. 12-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics, April 2012, https://www.piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/us-tire-tariffs-saving-few-jobs-high-cost.
  37. Barack Obama, “Remarks by the President in the State of the Union Address,” White House, January 24, 2012, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2012/01/24/remarks-president-state-union-address.
  38. Greer interview with the author, November 14, 2023.
  39. Greer interview with the author, November 14, 2023.
  40. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., Securities and Exchange Commission, Form DEF 14A, March 14, 2014, 52, http://pdf.secdatabase.com/1482/0001193125-14-099083.pdf; Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., Securities and Exchange Commission, Form DEF 14A, March 8, 2011, 36, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/42582/000095012311023118/l41553def14a.htm.
  41. Waggoner interview with the author, September 25, 2023.
  42. Calculations from Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
  43. Jackie Starks, “Illegally Subsidized Imports Take Jobs from 1,900 Tire Builders; United Steelworkers,” available at https://m.usw.org/act/campaigns/fair-trade/profiles/illegally-subsidized-imports-take-jobs.
  44. John F. Kennedy, “Special Message to the Congress on Foreign Trade Policy,” January 25, 1962, American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara, https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/special-message-the-congress-foreign-trade-policy.
  45. Kennedy, “Special Message on Trade Policy.”
  46. Douglas Irwin, Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy (University of Chicago Press, 2017), 523.
  47. John F. Kennedy, “Remarks upon Signing the Trade Expansion Act,” October 11, 1962, American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara, https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-upon-signing-the-trade-expansion-act.
  48. Congressional Research Service, “Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) and Its Role in US Trade Policy,” August 5, 2013, 7, https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R41922.html.
  49. Lori G. Kletzer and Howard Rosen, “Easing the Adjustment Burden on US Workers,” in The United States and the World Economy: Foreign Economic Policy for the Next Decade, ed. C. Fred Bergsten (The Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2005), 317.
  50. CRS, “Trade Adjustment Assistance,” 8.
  51. William Overholt, “The Great Betrayal: How America’s Elites Are Failing to Confront the Challenge of Trade Politics,” International Economy 31, no. 1 (2017): 34, http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_W17_Overholt.pdf.
  52. Kletzer and Rosen, “Easing the Adjustment Burden,” 317.
  53. Alan Blinder, “The Free Trade Paradox: The Bad Politics of a Good Idea,” Foreign Affairs 98, no. 1 (2019): 119–128.
  54. Kletzer and Rosen, “Easing the Adjustment Burden,” 323, footnote 14.
  55. Social Policy Research Associates and Mathematica Policy Research, “Estimated Impacts for Participants in the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) Program Under the 2002 Amendments,” prepared for US Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, August 2012, 12, https://www.mathematica.org/publications/estimated-impacts-for-participants-in-the-trade-adjustment-assistance-taa-program-under-the-2002-amendments. The study concluded that the program’s net benefit to society was a negative $53,802.
  56. George W. Bush, “President Bush Discusses Job Training Initiative in North Carolina,” White House, November 7, 2003, https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2003/11/text/20031107-6.html.
  57. Leath interview with the author, August 6, 2023.
  58. Jooyoun Park, “Does Occupational Training by the Trade Adjustment Assistance Program Really Help Reemployment?,” September 23, 2011, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1962169.
  59. “Estimated Impacts for Trade Adjustment Assistance,” X-1.
  60. Kara M. Reynolds and John S. Palatucci, “Does Trade Adjustment Assistance Make a Difference?,” Working Paper No. 2008-12, American University Department of Economics, August 2008, 2, https://w.american.edu/cas/economics/repec/amu/workingpapers/2008-12.pdf.
  61. Barnow interview with the author, November 9, 2023.
  62. Burt S. Barnow and Jeffrey Smith, “Employment and Training Programs,” in Economics of Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States, ed. Robert A. Moffitt, vol. 3 (University of Chicago Press, 2016), 152–153. In 2007, total education and training spending consumed 0.04 percent of US gross domestic product compared with 0.07 percent in 1989.
  63. George W. Bush, “Fact Sheet: President Bush Acts on Helping Unemployed Americans,” American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara, https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/fact-sheet-president-bush-acts-helping-unemployed-americans.
  64. Congressional Research Service, “Supplemental Appropriations FY2003: Iraq Conflict, Afghanistan, Global War on Terrorism, and Homeland Security,” May 5, 2003, 3, https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20030505_RL31829_db039ba8aea300f5819d16e57f303fcfc852e001.pdf.
  65. David J. Lynch, “On the Harley Free Trade Brigade: Like Others Before Him, Bush Uses Bikemaker to Tout Globalization,” USA Today, August 17, 2006, B1.
  66. US Department of Defense, “75 Years of the GI Bill: How Transformative It’s Been,” January 9, 2019, https://www.defense.gov/News/Feature-Stories/story/Article/1727086/75-years-of-the-gi-bill-how-transformative-its-been/. Among the millions of Americans who received a college education only because the GI Bill made it possible was the author’s father.
  67. Kletzer and Rosen, “Easing the Adjustment Burden,” 315–316.
  68. Claus Thustrup Kreiner and Michael Svarer, “Danish Flexicurity: Rights and Duties,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 36, no. 4 (2022): 82, 85, https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.36.4.81.
  69. Kreiner and Svarer, “Danish Flexicurity,” 93.
  70. Kerwin Kofi Charles, Erik Hurst, and Matthew J. Notowidigdo, “Housing Booms, Manufacturing Decline, and Labor Market Outcomes,” Working Paper No. 18949, National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2013, https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w18949/w18949.pdf.
  71. “Restoring America’s Promise of Opportunity, Prosperity and Growth,” Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, April 5, 2006, https://www.hamiltonproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Restoring_Americas_Promise_of_Opportunity_Prosperity_and_Growth_Transcript.pdf.
  72. “Restoring America’s Promise.”
  73. Lynch, “On the Harley Brigade.”
  74. Aldonas interview with author, November 17, 2023.
  75. Grant Aldonas, Robert Lawrence, and Matthew Slaughter, “An Adjustment Assistance Program for American Workers,” Financial Services Forum, July 2008, 4.
  76. Aldonas, Lawrence, and Slaughter, “An Adjustment Assistance Program,” 7.
  77. Hubbard interview with the author, November 18, 2023.
  78. Susan Houseman, “Understanding the Decline of US Manufacturing Employment,” Working Paper No. 18-287, Upjohn Institute, 2018, 28, https://research.upjohn.org/up_workingpapers/287/.
  79. Economists’ estimates vary for the relative contribution of trade and technology to manufacturing job losses. Michael Hicks and Srikant Devaraj of Ball State University conclude that technology is responsible for 88 percent of factory jobs lost between 2000 and 2010: Michael Hicks and Srikant Devaraj, “The Myth and the Reality of Manufacturing in America,” Center for Business and Economic Research, Ball State University, April 2017, 6; Melissa Kearney and Katharine Abraham of the University of Maryland find that competition from Chinese imports is to blame for roughly twice as much of the manufacturing employment decline between 1999 and 2018 as was automation: Melissa Kearney and Katharine Abraham, “Explaining the Decline in the US Employment-to-Population Ratio,” Working Paper No. 24333, National Bureau of Economic Research, February 2018, 51, https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w24333/w24333.pdf.
  80. David H. Autor et al., “The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States,” American Economic Review 103, no. 6 (2013): 2140, https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/the%20china%20syndrome%202013.pdf.
  81. Johnson interview with the author, March 12, 2024.
  82. Irwin, Clashing over Commerce, 666–667.
  83. Robert C. Feenstra and Akira Sasahara, “The ‘China Shock,’ Exports and US Employment: A Global Input-Output Analysis,” Working Paper No. 24022, National Bureau of Economic Research, November 2017, 3, https://www.nber.org/papers/w24022.
  84. Zhi Wang et al., “Re-Examining the Effects of Trading with China on Local Labor Markets: A Supply Chain Perspective,” Working Paper No. 24866, National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2018, 2, https://www.nber.org/papers/w24886.
  85. Data from the Tennessee Department of Health: https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/health/documents/TN_Marriages_Divorces_-_2009.pdf.
  86. August Benzow, “Economic Renaissance or Fleeting Recovery? Left-Behind Counties See Boom in Jobs and Businesses amid Widening Divides,” Economic Innovation Group, July 8, 2024, https://eig.org/left-behind-places/.
  87. Nicholas Bloom et al., “The China Shock Revisited: Job Reallocation and Industry Switching in US Labor Markets,” Working Paper No. 33098, National Bureau of Economic Research, November 2024, http://www.nber.org/papers/w33098.
  88. Zhi Wang et al., “Re-Examining the Effects,” 56.
  89. Yellen interview with the author, June 28, 2024.
  90. Justin R. Pierce, Peter K. Schott, and Cristina Tello-Trillo, “To Find Relative Earnings Gains After the China Shock, Look Outside Manufacturing and Upstream,” Working Paper No. 32438, National Bureau of Economic Research, May 2024, https://www.nber.org/papers/w32438.
  91. Bloom et al., “The China Shock Revisited.”
  92. Patrick J. Purcell, “Geographic Mobility and Annual Earnings in the United States,” Social Security Bulletin 80, no. 2 (2002): chart 1, https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v80n2/v80n2p1.html.
  93. Waggoner interview with the author, November 14, 2023.
  94. Lisa B. Kahn et al., “Racial and Ethnic Inequality and the China Shock,” Working Paper No. 30646, National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2024, 35, https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30646/w30646.pdf.
  95. Kahn et al., “Racial and Ethnic Inequality,” 29.
  96. Kahn et al., “Racial and Ethnic Inequality,” 38.
  97. Zillow Home Value Index, for Single-family Home Time Series by county, accessed here: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/.
  98. Martin Neil Baily and Robert Z. Lawrence, “What Happened to the Great US Job Machine? The Role of Trade and Electronic Offshoring,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 2 (2004): 213, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2004/06/2004b_bpea_baily.pdf.

第 5 章｜向著災難夢遊

  1. Hearing Before the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, 110th Congress, Second Session, “United States–China Relations in the Era of Globalization,” May 15, 2008, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-110shrg48013/pdf/CHRG-110shrg48013.pdf.
  2. Fox Butterfield, “Senators Cautioned on Taiwan by Deng,” New York Times, April 20, 1979, A9.
  3. US Department of State, “Deng Xiaoping Meeting with Codel Church/Javits,” April 19, 1979, confidential, https://aad.archives.gov/aad/createpdf?rid=13829&dt=2776&dl=2169.
  4. Philip Taubman, “US and Peking Join in Tracking Missiles in Soviet,” New York Times, June 18, 1981, A1; Rush Doshi, The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order (Oxford University Press, 2021), 47.
  5. Joe Biden, in “US-China Relations” hearing, 12, 19, and 48.
  6. Joe Biden, in “US-China Relations” hearing, 2.
  7. Robert B. Zoellick, deputy secretary of state, “Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility?,” remarks to the National Committee on US-China Relations, September 21, 2005, https://2001-2009.state.gov/s/d/former/zoellick/rem/53682.htm.
  8. David J. Lynch, “Suspect Imports Raise Questions About the Real Value of Getting Lowest Price; ‘Sometimes, It’s a Shock to Discover How Poor the Quality Processes Are,’” Money section, USA Today, July 3, 2007 cover story.
  9. David J. Lynch, “FBI Goes on Offensive vs. Tech Spies; China Linked to About One-Third of All Economic Espionage Cases,” Money section, USA Today, July 24, 2007, cover story.
  10. US Department of Justice, “Former Metaldyne Employees Sentenced to Prison in Conspiracy to Steal Confidential Business Information to Benefit Chinese Competitor,” February 13, 2009, https://www.justice.gov/sites/default/files/criminal-ccips/legacy/2012/03/15/lockwoodSent2.pdf.
  11. Laura Silver et al., “How Global Public Opinion of China Has Shifted in the Xi Era,” Pew Research Center, September 28, 2022, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2022/09/28/how-global-public-opinion-of-china-has-shifted-in-the-xi-era/.
  12. James Mann, The China Fantasy (Viking Penguin, 2007), 25–26.
  13. David M. Lampton, “The China Fantasy, Fantasy,” review of The China Fantasy: How Our Leaders Explain Away Chinese Repression, by James Mann, China Quarterly (September 2007): 745–749.
  14. Mann interview with the author, December 7, 2023.
  15. Pottinger interview with the author, October 27, 2023.
  16. Henry M. Paulson, On the Brink: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System (Business Plus, 2010), 82–83.
  17. Steven J. Hadley, ed., Hand-Off: The Foreign Policy George W. Bush Passed to Barack Obama (Washington: Brookings Institution Press, 2023), 423.
  18. Hadley, Hand-Off, 424.
  19. Interview with the author, December 7, 2023.
  20. Jie Li, “International System in Transition: From the Perspective of Financial Crisis,” China International Studies 16 (2009): 12.
  21. Henry M. Paulson Jr., Dealing with China: An Insider Unmasks the New Economic Superpower (Twelve, 2015), 240.
  22. US Department of the Treasury, “Transcript of US Delegation Press Conference at the Fourth Meeting of the US China Strategic Economic Dialogue,” June 18, 2008, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/hp1048.
  23. US Department of the Treasury, “Transcript of US Delegation Press Conference.”
  24. Paulson Jr., Dealing with China, 259.
  25. Yeling Tan, “How the WTO Changed China: The Mixed Legacy of Economic Engagement,” Foreign Affairs 100, no. 2 (2021): 90–102.
  26. Timothy Geithner, Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises (Crown, 2014), 357.
  27. Andrew Ross Sorkin, Too Big to Fail: The Inside Story of How Wall Street and Washington Fought to Save the Financial System—and Themselves (Viking Penguin, 2009), 445.
  28. Paulson Jr., Dealing with China, 256.
  29. Interview with the author, December 7, 2023.
  30. Paulson Jr., Dealing with China, 251.
  31. Paulson interview with the author, December 12, 2023.
  32. Paulson Jr., Dealing with China, 249.
  33. The relationship between bilateral merchandise and financial flows is not this direct. Flows of goods and cash must balance at the global level, though not for each country-to-country account.
  34. Paulson Jr., On the Brink, 64, 439–440.
  35. Ben S. Bernanke et al., “International Capital Flows and the Returns to Safe Assets in the United States, 2003–2007,” International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 2011, 20, https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2011/1014/ifdp1014.pdf.
  36. Foreign purchases of US government bonds shaved eighty basis points off the yield on the ten-year Treasury in the year ending May 2005, say Francis E. Warnock and Veronica Cacdac Warnock, “International Capital Flows and US Interest Rates,” Journal of International Money and Finance 28, no. 6 (2009), 904, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0261560609000461.
  37. “The Great Pandemic Mortgage Refinance Boom,” Liberty Street Economics (blog), Federal Reserve Bank of New York, May 15, 2023, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/05/the-great-pandemic-mortgage-refinance-boom/.
  38. Carol Bertaut et al., “ABS Inflows to the United States and the Global Financial Crisis,” International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1028, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August 2011, 33–34, https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2011/1028/ifdp1028.pdf.
  39. Bernanke et al., “International Capital Flows,” 3.
  40. Setser interview with the author, December 1, 2023.
  41. Anthony di Lorio, “Deutsche Bank 2006 Results: Roadshow Edinburgh/Dublin,” March 15–16, 2007, https://investor-relations.db.com/files/documents/other-presentations-and-events/Roadshow_EDI_DUB_15-16_Mar_Tony_di_Iorio.pdf?language_id=1.
  42. Tamim Bayoumi, Unfinished Business: The Unexplored Causes of the Financial Crisis and the Lessons Yet to Be Learned (International Monetary Fund, 2018), 10, 30.
  43. Jill Treanor, “Farewell to the FSA—and the Bleak Legacy of the Light-Touch Regulator,” The Guardian, March 23, 2013, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/mar/24/farewell-fsa-bleak-legacy-light-touch-regulator.
  44. Alan Greenspan, “World Finance and Risk Management,” remarks, Federal Reserve, September 25, 2002, https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/200209253/default.htm.
  45. “United States Article IV Consultation,” International Monetary Fund, August 2007, 26, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2007/cr07264.pdf.
  46. Bertaut et al., “ABS Inflows,” 2.
  47. Robert McCauley, “The 2008 Crisis: Transpacific or Transatlantic?,” BIS Quarterly Review, December 2018, 49, https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1812f.pdf; Viral Acharya and Philipp Schnabl, “Do Global Banks Spread Global Imbalances? The Case of Asset-Backed Commercial Paper During the Financial Crisis of 2007–09,” paper presented at the 10th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, hosted by the International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, November 5–6, 2009, 2, https://www.imf.org/external/np/res/seminars/2009/arc/pdf/acharya.pdf.
  48. Details of Sachsen’s holdings, including its Ormond Quay holdings and funding are taken from Acharya and Schnabl.
  49. Acharya and Schnabl, “Do Global Banks?,” 23.
  50. Martin Hellwig, “Germany and the Financial Crisis 2007–2017,” draft version, June 2018, 18, https://www.riksbank.se/globalassets/media/konferenser/2018/germany-and-financial-crises-2007-2017.pdf.
  51. Aaron Kirchfield and Jacqueline Simmons, “Lehman Toxic Debt Advice Led Leipzig Bank to Ruin Via Dublin,” Bloomberg News, October 28, 2008, https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/documents/areas/adm/loeb/09g10.pdf.
  52. National Commission on the Causes of the Financial and Economic Crisis in the United States, Financial Crisis Inquiry Report (US Government Printing Office, 2011), 140, https://fcic-static.law.stanford.edu/cdn_media/fcic-reports/fcic_final_report_full.pdf.
  53. Deborah Lucas, “Measuring the Cost of Bailouts,” Annual Review of Financial Economics 11 (December 2019): 85–108, https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-financial-110217-022532.
  54. National Commission on Crisis, Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, 352.
  55. Distributional Financial Accounts, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, available at https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/dataviz/dfa/compare/chart/#quarter:73;series:Assets;demographic:networth;population:all;units:levels.
  56. US Treasury, “Report on Foreign Holdings of US Securities at End-June 2008,” June 30, 2009, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/tg116#:~:text=The%20survey%20measured%20foreign%20holdings,of%20non%2DABS%20securities)%2C; US Treasury, “Report on Foreign Holdings of US Long-Term Securities as of March 31, 2000,” April 2002, https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/shl2000r.pdf.
  57. Anton Brender and Florence Pisani, Global Imbalances and the Collapse of Globalized Finance (Center for European Policy Studies, 2010), 1.
  58. Sharada Dharmasankar and Bhash Mazumder, “Have Borrowers Recovered from Foreclosures During the Great Recession?,” Chicago Fed Letter, no. 370 (June 2016): 1–5, https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2016/370.
  59. Bernanke et al., “International Capital Flows,” 16.
  60. Bayoumi interview with the author, September 15, 2023.
  61. Ben Bernanke, 21st Century Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve from the Great Inflation to COVID-19 (W. W. Norton, 2022), 163.
  62. CNBC’s Rick Santelli Chicago Tea Party, February 12, 2009, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zp-Jw-5Kx8k.
  63. Elizabeth Price Foley, The Tea Party Movement: Three Principles (Cambridge University Press, 2012), 76.
  64. Walter Russell Mead, “The Tea Party and American Foreign Policy: What Populism Means For Globalism,” Foreign Affairs 90, no. 2 (2011): 34.
  65. Ginia Bellafante, “Gunning for Wall Street with Faulty Aim,” New York Times, September 25, 2011, https://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/25/nyregion/protesters-are-gunning-for-wall-street-with-faulty-aim.html.
  66. John Judis, The Populist Explosion (Columbia Global Reports, 2016), 60.
  67. Wallach interview with the author, December 18, 2023.
  68. “Public Divided over Occupy Wall Street Movement; Tea Party Draws More Opposition Than Support,” Pew Research Center, October 24, 2011, https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2011/10/24/public-divided-over-occupy-wall-street-movement/.
  69. Barack Obama, “Remarks by the President on the Economy in Osawatomie, Kansas,” White House, December 6, 2011, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2011/12/06/remarks-president-economy-osawatomie-kansas#:~:text=I’m%20here%20in%20Kansas,Democratic%20values%20or%20Republican%20values.
  70. Wallach interview with the author, December 18, 2023.
  71. “Gregory with VP Biden at Washington Ideas Forum,” NBC News, October 5, 2011, https://www.nbcnews.com/video/gregory-with-vp-biden-at-washington-ideas-forum-44580419829.
  72. “Fukushima Daiichi Accident,” World Nuclear Association, updated August 2023, https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx.
  73. Marc Levinson, The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger (Princeton University Press, 2006), 1.
  74. Measured in twenty-foot equivalent (TEU) units. Annual data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Trade Development, “Handbook of Statistics 2023,” https://hbs.unctad.org/maritime-transport-indicators/, and 1990 figure from Linton Nightingale, “One Hundred Ports: The Numbers Tell the Story,” Lloyd’s List, August 18, 2022, https://lloydslist.com/LL1141949/One-Hundred-Ports-The-numbers-tell-the-story#:~:text=Container%20port%20volumes%20went%20through,a%20figure%20approaching%20250m%20teu.
  75. Bill Hurles, retired GM supply chain executive, interview with the author, December 15, 2023.
  76. Levinson, The Box, 266.
  77. Congressional Research Service, “The Motor Vehicle Supply Chain: Effects of the Japanese Earthquake and Tsunami,” May 23, 2011, 7, https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R41831.html.
  78. Dennis Fisher, “Japan Disaster Shakes Up Supply-Chain Strategies,” Harvard Business School Working Knowledge, May 31, 2011, https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/japan-disaster-shakes-up-supply-chain-strategies.
  79. Christoph E. Boehm et al., “The Role of Global Supply Chains in the Transmission of Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the Tōhoku Earthquake,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) Note, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, May 2, 2016, https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/feds-notes/2016/role-of-global-supply-chains-in-the-transmission-of-shocks-20160502.html.
  80. Yossi Sheffi, The Power of Resilience: How the Best Companies Manage the Unexpected (MIT Press, 2017), 7, 54–63.
  81. “Motor Vehicle Supply Chain,” 13.
  82. Flextronics International Ltd., Q4 2011 Earnings Calls, April 27, 2011.
  83. Flextronics International Ltd., Form 10-Q, for the period ending July 1, 2011, filed August 9, 2011, 19, https://d1lge852tjjqow.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000866374/34e68be7-72dd-4f6d-b1ad-603aab55eba6.pdf.
  84. Sheffi, The Power of Resilience, 67.
  85. Flextronics International Ltd., Form 10-Q, for the period ending December 31, 2011, filed February 2, 2012, 5, https://d1lge852tjjqow.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000866374/47a48382-dffc-4444-92b2-5ba049da26e7.pdf.
  86. Sheffi, The Power of Resilience, 23–25.
  87. “World Economic Outlook: War Sets Back the Global Recovery,” International Monetary Fund, April 2022, 99, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022#:~:text=War%20slows%20recovery&text=Global%20growth%20is%20projected%20to,percent%20over%20the%20medium%20term.
  88. Hurles interview with author, December 15, 2023.
  89. “Corporate Profits After Tax (Without IVA and CCAdj)/Gross Domestic Product,” FRED Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Pik.
  90. James B. Rice Jr., “The Japan Disaster: What Lessons Learned for the Supply Chain?,” talk at Imperial College London, August 12, 2011, 7, https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/research-centres-and-groups/centre-for-transport-studies/seminars/2011/The-Japan-Disaster-What-Lessons-Learned-for-the-Supply-Chain.pdf.
  91. Barry Lynn, “The Fragility That Threatens the World’s Industrial Systems,” Financial Times, 19.
  92. Michael T. Osterholm, “Preparing for the Next Pandemic,” Foreign Affairs 84, no. 4 (2005): 24–37.
  93. Lynn interview with the author, November 28, 2023.
  94. Barack Obama, A Promised Land (Crown, 2020), 176–177, 346.
  95. Evan Osnos, Joe Biden: The Life, the Run, and What Matters Now (Scribner, 2020), 104.
  96. Full text: “Biden’s Announcement That He Won’t Run for President,” Washington Post, October 21, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/10/21/full-text-bidens-announcement-that-he-wont-run-for-president/.

第 6 章｜別再往中國送錢了

  1. Richard Byrne Reilly, “VC Steve Jurvetson: Elon Musk Is More Capable Than Steve Jobs Was,” VentureBeat, April 24, 2014, https://venturebeat.com/entrepreneur/vc-steve-jurvetson-elon-musk-is-more-capable-than-steve-jobs-was/.
  2. Sharon Lim, “DFJ Leads $5 Million Financing Round of China’s Yeepay,” Infrastructure Investor, October 6, 2006, https://www.infrastructureinvestor.com/dfj-leads-5m-financing-round-of-chinas-yeepay/.
  3. Wang Xu, “Pay Package,” China Business Weekly, June 25, 2007, https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bw/2007-06/25/content_901146.htm.
  4. YeePay did not respond to multiple emailed requests for an interview with company executives. Chen Yu, the company’s president and co-founder, also did not respond to an interview request.
  5. This account of the YeePay situation comes from an interview with Draper on April 10, 2023.
  6. US Ambassador Jon Huntsman, “Portrait of Vice President Xi Jinping: ‘Ambitious Survivor’ of the Cultural Revolution,” confidential cable, November 16, 2009, available at WikiLeaks: https://www.wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09BEIJING3128_a.html.
  7. US Ambassador Clark Randt, “Zhejiang Party Secretary Touts Economic Successes and Work Towards Rule of Law at Ambassador’s Dinner,” confidential cable, March 19, 2007, available at WikiLeaks: https://www.wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/07BEIJING1840_a.html.
  8. Chun Han Wong, Party of One: The Rise of Xi Jinping and China’s Superpower Future (Avid Reader, 2023), 42.
  9. Sebastian Mallaby, The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future (Penguin, 2022), 248.
  10. Joseph Kahn, “China Detains Dissident, Citing Subversion,” New York Times, December 30, 2007, https://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/30/world/asia/web30china.html.
  11. May Hui, “TA Associates Invests in Venture Capital-Backed YeePay,” Greater China Private Equity Review, March 18, 2015.
  12. “China Headlines: New Regulation on Third-Party Payments Stirs Controversy,” Xinhua’s China Economic Information Service, August 3, 2015, https://www.ecns.cn/business/2015/08-03/175594.shtml.
  13. “Chinese Police Warn Third Party Payment Firms Against Pornography,” Xinhua News Agency, July 20, 2009.
  14. Zhou Xiaochuan, “Order No. 2 [2010] of the People’s Bank of China-Administrative Measures for the Payment Services Provided by Non-Financial Institutions,” People’s Bank of China, June 14, 2010, http://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688253/3689009/3788474/3926128/index.html.
  15. “PBOC Punishes Some Third-Party Payment Firms on Acquirer Business,” Xinhua News Agency, March 31, 2014.
  16. “China’s Unionpay Fines Payment Companies for Unlawful Operations,” Electronic Payments International, July 29, 2014, https://www.electronicpaymentsinternational.com/news/china-unionpay-fines-payment-companies-for-unlawful-operations-290714-4328959/. The standard service fees, which are divided among the bank that issued the card, the payment firm, and UnionPay, vary by type of business. Restaurants, for example, paid 1.25 percent of the transaction value while supermarkets paid 0.38 percent.
  17. “PBOC Punishes Payment Companies for Mishandling Bank Card Transactions,” Caixin Online, September 16, 2014, https://www.caixinglobal.com/2014-09-16/pboc-punishes-payment-companies-for-mishandling-bank-card-transactions-101013044.html.
  18. “China Headlines: New Regulation on Third-Party Payments Stirs Controversy,” Xinhua’s China Economic Information Service, August 3, 2015, https://www.ecns.cn/business/2015/08-03/175594.shtml.
  19. Chiu-Wan Liu, “The Chinese Fintech Boom and the Consolidation of Recentralized Authoritarian Capitalism,” Asian Survey 61, no. 6 (2021): 981, https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2021.1428111.
  20. Duncan Clark interview with the author, November 3, 2023.
  21. “China Protests by Fanya Metal Exchange Investors,” BBC News, September 21, 2015, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-34318344; Sun Yu and Thomas Hale, “China Fights a Financial Fraud Explosion,” Financial Times, December 2, 2021, https://www.ft.com/content/77f61cf0-5b9d-4ea8-854a-4f220039dcb7.
  22. “Fool’s Gold: An Investigative Report,” Radio Free Asia, December 20, 2016, https://www.rfa.org/english/multimedia/fanya-12202016115113.html.
  23. Richard McGregor, The Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers (Harper-Collins, 2010), 52.
  24. Rieschel interview with the author, October 20, 2023.
  25. Source interview with the author, July 10, 2023, and subsequent emails.
  26. “Local Government Debt: Interest Payment: Heilongjiang: Qitaihe,” CEIC, https://www.ceicdata.com/en/china/local-government-debt-prefecture-level-city-interest-payment/cn-local-government-debt-interest-payment-heilongjiang-qitaihe; Meredith Chen, “How China’s Smaller Private Firms May Be Paying the Price for Huge Local Government Debts,” South China Morning Post, November 3, 2024, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3285016/how-chinas-smaller-private-firms-may-be-paying-price-huge-local-government-debts.
  27. Nicholas Lardy, Integrating China into the Global Economy (Brookings Institution Press, 2002), 34.
  28. Lardy, Integrating China, 23.
  29. Yeling Tan, “How the WTO Changed China: The Mixed Legacy of Economic Engagement,” Foreign Affairs 100, no. 2 (2021): 6.
  30. Lee Branstetter and Nicholas Lardy, “China’s Embrace of Globalization,” Working Paper No. 12373, National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2006, 30, https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w12373/w12373.pdf.
  31. Tan, “How the WTO Changed China,” 9.
  32. Jeffrey Bader, Obama and China’s Rise: An Insider’s Account of America’s Asia Strategy (Brookings Institution Press, 2012), 69.
  33. Bader, Obama and China’s Rise, 113–114.
  34. Office of the US Trade Representative, “Chinese Export Subsidies Under the ‘Demonstration Bases–Common Service Platform’ Program Terminated Thanks to US-China Agreement,” April 14, 2016, https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2016/april/chinese-export-subsidies-under.
  35. Froman interview with the author, December 8, 2023.
  36. US Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, “Aluminum Extrusions from the People’s Republic of China: Preliminary Affirmative Countervailing Duty Determination, and Alignment of Final Determination with Final Antidumping Duty Determination,” March 11, 2024, https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/03/11/2024-05070/aluminum-extrusions-from-the-peoples-republic-of-china-preliminary-affirmative-countervailing-duy.
  37. Data drawn from annual Pew Research Center reports: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2014/07/14/chapter-2-chinas-image/ and https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2011/07/13/chapter-4-views-of-china/.
  38. Froman interview with the author, December 8, 2023.
  39. “Report of the Commission on the Theft of American Intellectual Property,” National Bureau of Asian Research, May 2013, 3, https://www.nbr.org/wp-content/uploads/pdfs/publications/IP_Commission_Report.pdf.
  40. Hickton interview with the author, December 28, 2023.
  41. Dennis Wilder, former deputy associate director of the Central Intelligence Agency’s East Asia Mission Center, interview with the author, January 2, 2024.
  42. Tom Donilon, “Remarks by Tom Donilon, National Security Advisor to the President, the United States and the Asia-Pacific in 2013,” White House, March 11, 2013, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2013/03/11/remarks-tom-donilon-national-security-advisor-president-united-states-an.
  43. “US Charges Five Chinese Military Hackers for Cyber Espionage Against US Corporations and a Labor Organization for Commercial Advantage,” Office of Public Affairs, US Department of Justice, May 19, 2014, https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-charges-five-chinese-military-hackers-cyber-espionage-against-us-corporations-and-labor.
  44. “America, China and the Hacking Threat,” Editorial Board, New York Times, May 25, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/25/opinion/sunday/america-china-and-the-hacking-threat.html.
  45. Tom Fontaine, “Chinese Hacker Indictment a Publicity Stunt, Says Former Governor Ridge,” Trib Total Media, June 10, 2014, https://archive.triblive.com/local/pittsburgh-allegheny/chinese-hacker-indictment-a-publicity-stunt-says-former-governor-ridge/.
  46. Karoun Demirjian, “Chinese Hackers Stole 60,000 State Dept. Emails in Breach Reported in July,” New York Times, September 27, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/27/us/politics/chinese-hackers-state-department.html.
  47. National Security Agency, “Huawei Surveillance Program Notes,” Snowden Archive, accessed December 31, 2023, https://snowden.glendon.yorku.ca/items/show/789.
  48. Ellen Nakashima, “Indictment of Chinese Hackers Part of Broad Strategy,” Washington Post, May 23, 2014, A8.
  49. Ellen Nakashima, “US Developing Sanctions Against China over Cyberthefts,” Washington Post, August 30, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/administration-developing-sanctions-against-china-over-cyberespionage/2015/08/30/9b2910aa-480b-11e5-8ab4-c73967a143d3_story.html.
  50. White House, “Remarks by President Obama and President Xi of the People’s Republic of China in Joint Press Conference,” September 25, 2015, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/25/remarks-president-obama-and-president-xi-peoples-republic-china-joint.
  51. Hearing Before the Committee on Armed Services, United States Senate, “Hearing to Receive Testimony on United States Cyber Command in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2017 and the Future Years Defense Plan,” April 5, 2016, 70, https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/16-35_4-05-16.pdf.
  52. David J. Lynch and Geoff Dyer, “Chinese Hacking of US Companies Declines,” Financial Times, April 13, 2016, https://www.ft.com/content/d81e30de-00e4-11e6-99cb-83242733f755.
  53. “US Charges Three Chinese Hackers Who Work at Internet Security Firm for Hacking Three Corporations for Commercial Advantage,” Office of Public Affairs, US Department of Justice, November 27, 2017, https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-charges-three-chinese-hackers-who-work-internet-security-firm-hacking-three-corporations.
  54. Josh Chin, “Chinese Firm Behind Alleged Hacking Was Disbanded This Month,” Wall Street Journal, November 29, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-firm-behind-alleged-hacking-was-disbanded-this-month-1511881494.
  55. Chin, “Chinese Firm Disbanded”; Council on Foreign Relations, “Indictment of APT 3 Threat Actors,” November 2017, https://www.cfr.org/cyber-operations/indictment-apt-3-threat-actors.
  56. Michael S. Chase, “Xi in Command: Downsizing and Reorganizing the People’s Liberation Army,” Commentary, RAND Corporation, September 14, 2015, https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2015/09/xi-in-command-downsizing-and-reorganizing-the-peoples.html.
  57. “US Charges Three Chinese Hackers Who Work at Internet Security Firm for Hacking Three Corporations for Commercial Advantage,” Office of Public Affairs, US Department of Justice, November 27, 2017, 8, https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-charges-three-chinese-hackers-who-work-internet-security-firm-hacking-three-corporations.
  58. Dan Levin, “China Names 14 Generals Suspected of Corruption,” New York Times, March 2, 2015, A10, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/03/world/china-names-14-generals-suspected-of-corruption.html.
  59. Evanina interview with the author, December 29, 2023.
  60. International Trade Commission, “US-Korea Free Trade Agreement: Potential Economy-Wide and Selected Sectoral Effects,” Investigation No. TA-2104-24, USITC Publication 3949, September 2007, https://www.usitc.gov/publications/pub3949.pdf.
  61. John Parkinson, “House Passes Three Free Trade Agreements,” ABC News, October 13, 2011, https://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/10/house-passes-three-free-trade-agreeements; Jim Abrams, “Obama Signs Three Trade Deals, Biggest Since NAFTA,” NBC News, October 21, 2011, https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna44989775.
  62. China’s trade status was made permanent seven years after the NAFTA vote with 73 Democratic votes. When the House approved a Central American trade deal in 2005, only 15 Democrats joined the majority.
  63. Hillary Clinton, “America’s Pacific Century: The future of politics will be decided in Asia, not Afghanistan or Iraq, and the United States will be right at the center of the action,” Foreign Policy, October 11, 2011, https://foreignpolicy.com/2011/10/11/americas-pacific-century/#:~:text=In%20Asia%2C%20they%20ask%20whether,We%20can%2C%20and%20we%20will.
  64. Wallach interview with the author, December 18, 2023.
  65. David J. Lynch, “Obama’s Goals Clash as Allies Say Trade Push Widens Income Gap,” Bloomberg News, January 30, 2014.
  66. Rep. Mark Pocan, “Democrats Call on Administration to Release Confidential Labor Advisory Committee Report,” press release, June 11, 2015, https://pocan.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/pocan-evo.house.gov/files/wysiwyg_uploaded/Modified%20TPP%20Interim%20Report%20redacted%20052915.pdf.
  67. Lauren French, Jake Sherman, and John Bresnahan, “Democrats Deal Obama Huge Defeat on Trade,” Politico, June 12, 2015, https://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/barack-obama-capitol-hill-trade-deal-118927.
  68. Public Law 114-26, “Trade Promotion Authority,” 129 STAT 320, June 29, 2015, https://www.congress.gov/114/plaws/publ26/PLAW-114publ26.pdf.
  69. Cutler interview with the author, December 18, 2023.
  70. Jonathan Weisman, “Trade Authority Bill Wins Final Approval in Senate,” New York Times, June 24, 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/25/business/trade-pact-senate-vote-obama.html.
  71. Glenn Kessler, “Fact Check: Clinton Did Call TPP ‘The Gold Standard,’” Washington Post, September 26, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2016/live-updates/general-election/real-time-fact-checking-and-analysis-of-the-first-presidential-debate/fact-check-clinton-dod-call-tpp-the-gold-standard/.
  72. Mark Murray, Chuck Todd, and Andrew Rafferty, “First Read: Jeb Bush Leads the GOP Pack,” NBC News, June 22, 2015, https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read-jeb-bush-leads-gop-pack-n379601.
  73. Simas interview with the author, January 5, 2024.
  74. Time staff, “Here’s Donald Trump’s Presidential Announcement Speech,” Time, June 16, 2015, https://time.com/3923128/donald-trump-announcement-speech/.
  75. Froman interview with the author, December 8, 2023.
  76. “Real Median Household Income in the United States,” FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated September 11, 2024, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N.
  77. Mayhill Fowler, “Obama: No Surprise that Hard-Pressed Pennsylvanians Turn Bitter,” HuffPost, November 17, 2008, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/obama-no-surprise-that-ha_b_96188.
  78. Maureen Burke, “People in Economics: The $787 Billion Question,” Finance and Development, International Monetary Fund, March 2013, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2013/03/people.htm; Noam Scheiber, “Exclusive: The Memo That Larry Summers Didn’t Want Obama to See,” New Republic, February 22, 2012, https://newrepublic.com/article/100961/memo-larry-summers-obama.
  79. Jackie Calmes, “Obama Unveils New Budget Cuts,” New York Times, May 7, 2009, https://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/08/us/politics/08budget.html.
  80. Robert E. Scott, “Worst Recovery in Postwar Era Largely Explained by Cuts in Government Spending,” Economic Policy Institute, August 2, 2016, https://www.epi.org/blog/worst-recovery-in-post-war-era-largely-explained-by-cuts-in-government-spending/.
  81. “Employment-Population Ratio, 25–54 Years,” FRED Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060.
  82. Data drawn from the Bureau of Economic Analysis interactive website showing a 34.5 percent real increase in GDP between 2001 and 2016 compared with a 61.1 percent gain between 1986 and 2001 measured in chained 2017 dollars: https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqid=19&step=2&isuri=1&categories=survey&_gl=1*sb5q7f*_ga*OTkwNDU3MTMyLjE3MDM0NDg2NTA.*_ga_J4698JNNFT*MTcwMzQ0ODY0OS4xLjEuMTcwMzQ0ODcxOC41OS4wLjA.#eyJhcHBpZCI6MTksInN0ZXBzIjpbMSwyLDMsM10sImRhdGEiOltbImNhdGVnb3JpZXMiLCJTdXJ2ZXkiXSxbIk5JUEFf VGFibGVfTGlzdCIsIjYiXSxb IkZpcnN0X1llYXIiLCIxOTg2Il0sWyJMYXN0X1llYXIiLCIyMDAxIl0sWy JTY2FsZSIsIi05Il0sWyJTZXJpZXMiLCJBIl1dfQ==.
  83. US nonfarm employment grew by 4.8 percent between January 2008 and October 2016, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Comparable figures for the three states were 1.4 percent for Pennsylvania, 2.4 percent for Michigan, and 1.8 percent for Wisconsin.
  84. Lawrence Summers, “A Deal Worth Getting Right,” Washington Post, March 9, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/its-worth-getting-the-tpp-trade-deal-right/2015/03/08/a1017428-c42f-11e4-ad5c-3b8ce89f1b89_story.html.
  85. David J. Lynch, “Obama’s Goals Clash as Allies Say Trade Push Widens Income Gap,” Bloomberg News, January 30, 2014.
  86. “Satisfaction with the United States,” Gallup, https://news.gallup.com/poll/1669/general-mood-country.aspx.
  87. Reich interview with the author, November 30, 2023.

第 7 章｜全球化與貿易的病態

  1. Jonathan Allen and Amie Parnes, Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton’s Doomed Campaign (Crown, 2017), 184–185.
  2. Allen and Parnes, Shattered, 176.
  3. John Judis, The Populist Explosion (Columbia Global Reports, 2016), 83–84.
  4. Chelsea Schneider and Brian Eason, “Clinton Touts Manufacturing in Northern Indiana,” Star Press, April 27, 2016, A2.
  5. Ahiza Garcia, “Carrier Workers’ Rage over Move to Mexico Caught on Video,” CNN, February 19, 2016, https://money.cnn.com/2016/02/12/news/companies/carrier-moving-jobs-mexico-youtube/.
  6. Nick Carey, “Sanders, Trump Give Union Hope in Fight for Carrier Jobs,” Reuters, February 18, 2016, https://www.reuters.com/article/world/sanders-trump-give-union-hope-in-fight-for-carrier-jobs-idUSKCN0VS02E/.
  7. This account comes from a person familiar with the company’s internal deliberations who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
  8. Team Fix, “The CBS News Republican Debate Transcript, Annotated,” Washington Post, February 13, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/13/the-cbs-republican-debate-transcript-annotated/.
  9. Carey, “Sanders, Trump Give Union Hope.”
  10. Michael Anthony Adams, “Hundreds Protest Carrier’s Move to Mexico,” IndyStar, March 23, 2016, https://www.indystar.com/videos/news/2016/03/23/82192072/.
  11. Schneider and Eason, “Clinton Touts Manufacturing.”
  12. “Bill Clinton Discusses Carrier at Indy Rally,” WRTV, April 26, 2016, https://news.yahoo.com/news/bill-clinton-discusses-carrier-indy-172838582.html.
  13. Kane Farabaugh, “Jobs, Trade Agreements Among Top Concerns for Indiana Workers,” Voice of America, April 29, 2016.
  14. “Former Pres. Bill Clinton Talks NAFTA, Carrier Corp. During Fort Wayne Visit,” WBOI News, April 30, 2016, https://www.wboi.org/news/2016-04-30/former-pres-bill-clinton-talks-nafta-carrier-corp-during-fort-wayne-visit.
  15. David J. Lynch, “Trump’s Carrier Deal Fades as Economic Reality Intervenes,” Washington Post, October 26, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/26/trump-carrier-manufacturing-jobs/.
  16. Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  17. Political transcripts by CQ, “Donald Trump, Republican Presidential Candidate Delivers Remarks at a Campaign Rally in Indianapolis,” May 2, 2016.
  18. “Full Transcript: Donald Trump’s Jobs Plan Speech,” Politico, June 28, 2016, https://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/full-transcript-trump-job-plan-speech-224891.
  19. “Trump’s Jobs Plan Speech.”
  20. “2016 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton,” RealClear Polling, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clinton.
  21. David J. Lynch, “Immigrations Fears Boost Trump Far from Mexican Border,” Financial Times, July 4, 2016, https://www.ft.com/content/bfd425f8-3f0d-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0.
  22. “Full Transcript: First 2016 Presidential Debate,” Politico, September 27, 2016, https://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/full-transcript-first-2016-presidential-debate-228761.
  23. Allen and Parnes, Shattered, 307–308.
  24. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Educational Attainment for Workers 25 Years and Older by Detailed Occupation”; Congressional Research Service, “Real Wage Trends, 1979 to 2019,” updated December 28, 2020, 12, https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R45090.pdf.
  25. Annie Linskey, “A Wistful, Resolute Bill Clinton Works Small-Town Trail Anew,” Boston Globe, October 6, 2016, A1.
  26. John Wagner, “Clinton Plans New Effort to Win Over White Working-Class Men,” Washington Post, October 8, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-plans-new-effort-to-win-over-white-working-class-men/2016/10/07/6ffb7e1a-8ca0-11e6-875e-2c1bfe943b66_story.html.
  27. Allen and Parnes, Shattered, 366.
  28. Allen and Parnes, Shattered, 375.
  29. Allen and Parnes, Shattered, 379.
  30. Trip Gabriel, “How Erie Went Red: A Democratic Bastion Undone by Job Losses,” New York Times, November 13, 2016, A27.
  31. David Maraniss, “A Dynasty Undone by Its Building Blocks,” Washington Post, November 10, 2016, A1.
  32. “How Trump’s Taj Mahal Casino Went from ‘8th Wonder of the World’ to Closure After Years of Losses,” ABC News, October 17, 2016, https://abcnews.go.com/US/trumps-taj-mahal-casino-8th-world-closure-years/story?id=42762369.
  33. Morrison interview with the author, February 21, 2018, previously unpublished.
  34. Clinton interview with the author, February 6, 2024.
  35. Robert Griffin and Ruy Teixeira, “The Story of Trump’s Appeal: A Portrait of Trump’s Voters,” Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, June 2017, https://www.voterstudygroup.org/publication/story-of-trumps-appeal.
  36. “Voter Study Group Releases New Longitudinal Poll and Reports on the American Electorate,” Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, June 13, 2017, https://www.voterstudygroup.org/newsroom/press-release-june-13-2017.
  37. Griffin and Teixeira, “The Story of Trump’s Appeal.”
  38. John Sides et al., Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America (Princeton University Press, 2018), 2.
  39. Diana C. Mutz, Winners and Losers: The Psychology of Foreign Trade (Princeton University Press, 2021), 243.
  40. Diana C. Mutz, “Status Threat, Not Economic Hardship, Explains the 2016 Presidential Vote,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115, no. 19 (2018): E4330–E4339, https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1718155115.
  41. Diana C. Mutz, “Response to Morgan: On the Role of Status Threat and Material Interests in the 2016 Election,” Socius 4 (2018): 3, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10.1177/2378023118808619.
  42. Sullivan interview with the author, April 5, 2024.
  43. Morgan interview with the author, January 10, 2024.
  44. Stephen L. Morgan, “Status Threat, Material Interests, and the 2016 Presidential Vote,” Socius 4 (2018), https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10.1177/2378023118788217.
  45. Justin Grimmer and William Marble, “Who Put Trump in the White House? Explaining the Contribution of Voting Blocs to Trump’s Victory,” draft version, December 12, 2019, 33, https://williammarble.co/docs/vb.pdf.
  46. Dani Rodrik, “Why Does Globalization Fuel Populism? Economics, Culture, and the Rise of Right-Wing Populism,” Annual Review of Economics 13, no. 1 (2021): 133–170, https://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rodrik/files/why_does_globalization_fuel_populism.pdf.
  47. Rodrik, “Why Does Globalization Fuel Populism?,” 139.
  48. Rodrik, “Why Does Globalization Fuel Populism?,” 139.
  49. J. Lawrence Broz et al., “Populism in Place: The Economic Geography of the Globalization Backlash,” International Organization 75, no. 2 (2021): 465, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/populism-in-place-the-economic-geography-of-the-globalization-backlash/98ED873D925E0590CB9A78AEC68BB439.
  50. Broz et al., “Populism in Place,” 470.
  51. Broz et al., “Populism in Place,” 477.
  52. Edward Wolff, “Household Wealth Trends in the United States, 1962 to 2016: Has Middle Class Wealth Recovered?,” Working Paper No. 24085, National Bureau of Economic Research, November 2017, 2, https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w24085/w24085.pdf.
  53. Bob Davis and Jon Hilsenrath, “How the China Shock, Deep and Swift, Spurred the Rise of Trump,” Wall Street Journal, August 11, 2016, https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-china-shock-deep-and-swift-spurred-the-rise-of-trump-1470929543.
  54. David Autor et al., “Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure,” American Economic Review 110, no. 10 (2020): 3139, 3177, https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20170011.
  55. Autor et al., “Importing Political Polarization?,” 3175.
  56. Hubbard interview with the author, November 18, 2023.
  57. Election data from the office of the Tennessee secretary of state, available at https://sos.tn.gov/elections/results.
  58. Bannon interview with the author, January 10, 2024.
  59. David J. Lynch, “Trump Moves to Crack Down on China Trade with $60 Billion in Tariffs on Imported Products,” Washington Post, March 22, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-moves-to-crack-down-on-china-trade-with-50-billion-in-tariffs-on-imported-products/2018/03/22/c09309e8-2de3-11e8-8ad6-fbc50284fce8_story.html.
  60. Hillary Rodham Clinton, What Happened (Simon & Schuster, 2017), 410.
  61. “Watch President-elect Donald Trump Speak from Carrier Plant,” PBS Newshour, December 1, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlT_j98Qdy8.
  62. Peggy Noonan, “Declarations: Trump’s Carrier Coup and a Lesson From JFK,” Wall Street Journal, December 3, 2016, A11.
  63. Ylan Mui, “Trump Demonstrates the Art of Celebrating the Deal,” Washington Post, December 3, 2016, A1.
  64. “United Technologies CEO Greg Hayes: Trump’s ‘No Quid Pro Quo’ Request,” CNBC, December 6, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7q6v0yd9eRE.
  65. Carrier filed the required Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notice on May 19, 2017, https://www.in.gov/dwd/warn-notices/current-warn-notices/.
  66. There were 12.2 million manufacturing workers in January 2021 and 12.4 million in January 2017. “All Employees—Manufacturing,” FRED Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP#0.
  67. Jill Aitoro, “Raytheon CEO on Trump Meeting: President Appears to Understand Value of UTC-Raytheon Tie-up,” DefenseNews, June 19, 2019, https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/paris-air-show/2019/06/19/raytheon-ceo-trump-clearly-understands-the-value-of-the-raytheon-utc-tie-up/.
  68. David J. Lynch and Shawn Donnan, “Police Arrest More Than 200 in Inauguration Protests,” Financial Times, January 20, 2017, https://www.ft.com/content/5e5e3f08-df57-11e6-9d7c-be108f1c1dce.
  69. Peter Baker, “Trump Abandons Trans-Pacific Partnership, Obama’s Signature Trade Deal,” New York Times, January 24, 2017, A1.
  70. Lighthizer interview with the author, February 21, 2024.
  71. “President Trump Meeting with Union Leaders and Workers,” C-SPAN, January 23, 2017, https://www.c-span.org/video/?422483-1/president-trump-meeting-union-leaders-workers.
  72. Cutler interview with the author, December 18, 2023.

第 8 章｜美國政府最關鍵的人

  1. Matthew Forbes Pottinger, interviewed by Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the US Capitol, US House of Representatives, April 7, 2022, 7, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-J6-TRANSCRIPT-CTRL0000062447/pdf/GPO-J6-TRANSCRIPT-CTRL0000062447.pdf.
  2. Major General Michael T. Flynn, USA Captain Matt Pottinger, USMC Paul D. Batchelor, DIA, “Fixing Intel: A Blueprint for Making Intelligence Relevant in Afghanistan,” Center for a New American Security, January 2010, 4, https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/documents/AfghanIntel_Flynn_Jan2010_code507_voices.pdf.
  3. Pottinger interview with the author, July 11, 2023.
  4. Pottinger interview with the author, July 11, 2023.
  5. “US Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific,” White House, 2017, January 5, 2021, declassified, 1, https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/IPS-Final-Declass.pdf.
  6. “US Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific,” White House, 2017, January 5, 2021, declassified, 2, https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/IPS-Final-Declass.pdf.
  7. “US Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific,” White House, 2017, January 5, 2021, declassified, 6, https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/IPS-Final-Declass.pdf.
  8. James Lighthizer interview with the author, February 14, 2018.
  9. Damian Paletta, “Top Trump Trade Officials Still at Odds After Profane Shouting Match in Beijing,” Washington Post, May 16, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/05/16/top-trump-trade-officials-still-at-odds-after-profane-shouting-match-in-beijing/.
  10. Bannon interview with the author, January 10, 2024.
  11. “A Trump Sampler: His Changing Views,” New York Times, May 7, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/08/sunday-review/a-trump-sampler-his-changing-views.html.
  12. Jennifer M. Miller, “Let’s Not Be Laughed at Anymore: Donald Trump and Japan from the 1980s to the Present,” Journal of American-East Asian Relations 25, no. 2 (2018): 139, https://jennifermmiller.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/final-trump-article.pdf.
  13. “Lou Dobbs Tonight,” transcript, aired April 20, 2004, National Foundation for American Policy, https://nfap.com/newarticle/lou-dobbs-tonight/.
  14. Donald Trump, “‘Trump Revealed’: The Reporting Archive,” interview by Bob Woodward and Robert Costa, Washington Post, March 31, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-stat/graphics/politics/trump-archive/docs/donald-trump-interview-with-bob-woodward-and-robert-costa.pdf.
  15. Miller, “Let’s Not Be Laughed at Anymore,” 149.
  16. Yumiko Ono, “Trump’s Condos Lose Their Luster for Tokyo Buyers,” Wall Street Journal, June 22, 1990, A5.
  17. Guajardo interview with the author, August 16, 2023.
  18. “Executive Order: Border Security and Immigration Enforcement Improvements,” White House, January 25, 2017, https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-border-security-immigration-enforcement-improvements/.
  19. Full text of Xi Jinping keynote at the World Economic Forum, available at https://america.cgtn.com/2017/01/17/full-text-of-xi-jinping-keynote-at-the-world-economic-forum.
  20. Stephen Schwarzman, What It Takes: Lessons in the Pursuit of Excellence (Simon & Schuster, 2019), 317.
  21. White House footage of expanded bilateral meeting with Xi Jinping, available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICD6Prj-qEA.
  22. Bob Davis and Lingling Wei, Superpower Showdown: How the Battle Between Trump and Xi Threatens a New Cold War (Harper Business, 2020), 181.
  23. Bannon interview with the author, January 10, 2024.
  24. Robert E. Lighthizer, “What Did Asian Donors Want?,” New York Times, February 25, 1997, https://www.nytimes.com/1997/02/25/opinion/what-did-asian-donors-want.html.
  25. David J. Lynch and Gerry Shih, “Crossed Wires: Why the US and China Are Struggling to Reach a Trade Deal,” Washington Post, October 24, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/crossed-wires-why-the-us-and-china-are-struggling-to-reach-a-trade-deal/2018/10/24/69f859e6-d2dc-11e8-8c22-fa2ef74bd6d6_story.html.
  26. Binyamin Applebaum, “US Begins Nafta Negotiations with Harsh Words,” New York Times, August 16, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/16/business/economy/nafta-negotiations-canada-mexico.html.
  27. Peter Baker and Susan Glasser, The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017–2021 (Doubleday, 2022), 74.
  28. Author interview with a diplomat, who asked not to be identified.
  29. Damian Paletta, “Trump Considers Order That Would Start Process of Withdrawing from NAFTA,” Washington Post, April 26, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/04/26/trump-close-to-notifying-canada-mexico-of-intent-to-withdraw-from-nafta/.
  30. Jan-Albert Hootsen, “The ‘Colossal Failure’ of Trump’s Mexico Visit,” Politico, September 2, 2016, https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/trump-mexico-visit-pena-nieto-failure-214211/.
  31. Author interview with a presidential adviser who asked not to be identified, February 8, 2024.
  32. “The full incidence of the tariff falls on domestic consumers,” concluded Mary Amiti et al., “The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on US Prices and Welfare,” Working Paper No. 25672, National Bureau of Economic Research, March 2019, https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25672/w25672.pdf.
  33. David J. Lynch, “Companies Can Escape Trump’s Steel Tariffs. But It Won’t Be Easy,” Washington Post, June 19, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/companies-can-escape-trumps-steel-tariffs-but-it-wont-be-easy/2018/06/19/9c03da20-701a-11e8-bd50-b80389a4e569_story.html.
  34. Veljko Fotak et al., “The Political Economy of Tariff Exemption Grants,” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, ahead of print, July 29, 2024, https://jfqa.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/23440-Tariff-Exemptions.pdf.
  35. Carrier Corp., “Section 301 Investigation: China’s Acts, Policies and Practices Related to Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property and Innovation—Form to Request Exclusion of Product,” USTR-2018-032-2579, December 18, 2018.
  36. Carrier Corp., “Section 301 Investigation.”
  37. “Placing Carrier’s components on the final list of proposed tariffs, therefore, will only raise costs on US businesses and consumers, and threaten American jobs without producing the policy changes sought by USTR,” Reilly Kimmerling, Carrier’s senior director of international trade compliance, testified before a USTR panel. “Section 301 Tariffs Public Hearing,” 301 Committee, US Trade Representative, June 25, 2019, 260, https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/enforcement/301Investigations/Section_301_Hearing_Transcript_on_Proposed_Tariffs_Day_7.pdf.
  38. Joseph Barloon, general counsel, “Exclusion Denied,” Office of the United States Trade Representative, May 7, 2019, https://www.regulations.gov/document/USTR-2018-0032-2579.
  39. Strain interview with the author, February 27, 2020.
  40. Kimberly Clausing, “Fixing Our ‘America Last’ Tax Policy,” The Hill, April 11, 2019, https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/438274-fixing-our-america-last-tax-policy/.
  41. Data drawn from table 1A, column F on this Internal Revenue Service page: https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-country-by-country-report. By 2020, the most recent data available, the gap had widened: Corporations claimed to have made $46 billion in profits in Ireland and $33 billion in China.
  42. Applied Materials, Form 10-K for the Fiscal Year Ended October 28, 2018, 91, https://ir.appliedmaterials.com/static-files/e32d0616-758c-4703-b49b-84c3a3c21db5. The company’s rate temporarily jumped the following year, reflecting the transition to the new corporate tax regime, which provided a one-time incentive to repatriate and pay deferred taxes on some of the $2 trillion in deferred profits that companies had accumulated in offshore accounts. Economist Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations was the first to comment on Applied Materials’ tax situation: https://x.com/Brad_Setser/status/1762217221110067682.
  43. For pace of growth, see “Real Private Nonresidential Fixed Investment,” FRED Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OB000336Q; for level relative to size of the economy, see “Share of Gross Domestic Product: Gross Private Domestic Investment,” FRED Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A006RE1Q156NBEA.
  44. International Trade Commission, “US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement: Likely Impact on the US Economy and on Specific Industry Sectors,” April 2019, 14, https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/pub4889.pdf. The ITC projected a total gain of 176,000 jobs compared with the 2018 average monthly increase of 223,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2019/article/employment-growth-accelerates-in-2018.htm#:~:text=According%20to%20data%20from%20the,monthly%20gain%20of%20223%2C000%20jobs.
  45. Lena Sun, “Top White House Official in Charge of Pandemic Response Exits Abruptly,” Washington Post, May 10, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/05/10/top-white-house-official-in-charge-of-pandemic-response-exits-abruptly/.
  46. Wallach interview with the author, March 18, 2024.
  47. Wallach interview with the author, March 18, 2024.
  48. “Commanding Heights: Lori Wallach,” PBS, https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/shared/minitext/int_loriwallach.html#1.
  49. Peter Baker, “Trump Abandons Trans-Pacific Partnership, Obama’s Signature Trade Deal,” New York Times, January 23, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/23/us/politics/tpp-trump-trade-nafta.html.
  50. Chris Hayes, “Fighting over Trade Wars with Lori Wallach: Podcast and Transcript,” NBC News, January 15, 2019; available at https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/fighting-over-trade-wars-lori-wallach-podcast-transcript-ncna958876.
  51. Sullivan interview with the author, April 5, 2024.
  52. “US Foreign Policy for the Middle Class: Perspectives from Ohio,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2018, 21, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/USForeignPolicy_Ohio_final.pdf.
  53. “Roundtable: The Future of Globalization,” International Monetary Fund, October 11, 2017, https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=5607414429001.
  54. Industry employment plunged to about 20,000 in 2008 from roughly 55,000 in 2001, according to Joseph C. Von Nesen, “Economic Impact of GADC,” Division of Research, Moore School of Business, University of South Carolina, April 2021, 4, https://upstatebusinessjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/04/Growing-Greenville-Gvl-County-Economic-Impact-Study-2021.pdf.
  55. Novelli interview with author, August 16, 2023.
  56. Damien Paletta, David J. Lynch, and Josh Dawsey, “Trump’s Claims on China Trade Deal Already Fracturing,” Washington Post, December 5, 2018, A1.
  57. David J. Lynch, “President Delays Tariff Hikes to Help China Talks,” Washington Post, February 25, 2019, A1.
  58. Robert E. Lighthizer, No Trade Is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America’s Workers (Broadside Books, 2023), 175.
  59. David J. Lynch, “US Says China Reneged on Trade Commitments,” Washington Post, May 7, 2019, A1.
  60. United States Attorney’s Office Eastern District of New York, “Chinese Telecommunications Conglomerate Huawei and Huawei CFO Wanzhou Meng Charged with Financial Fraud,” press release, January 28, 2019, https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/chinese-telecommunications-conglomerate-huawei-and-huawei-cfo-wanzhou-meng-charged.
  61. David J. Lynch, “US Companies Banned from Selling to China’s ZTE Telecom Maker,” Washington Post, April 16, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2018/04/16/u-s-companies-banned-from-selling-to-chinas-zte-telecom-maker/.
  62. Damian Paletta, Ellen Nakashima, and Steven Mufson, “China Telecom Sparks Talks,” Washington Post, May 14, 2018, A6.
  63. Michael Crowley, “The White House Official Trump Says Doesn’t Exist,” Politico, May 30, 2018, https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/05/30/donald-trump-matthew-pottinger-asia-218551/.
  64. Michael Barbaro and Steve Eder, “Under Oath, Donald Trump Shows His Raw Side,” New York Times, July 28, 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/29/us/politics/depositions-show-donald-trump-as-quick-to-exaggerate-and-insult.html.
  65. Pottinger interview with the author, April 1, 2024.
  66. David J. Lynch, “Trump’s Next Round of Trade Limits Could Hurt the US Tech Industry He Wants to Help,” Washington Post, May 21, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trumps-next-round-of-trade-limits-could-hurt-the-us-tech-industry-he-wants-to-help/2018/05/21/7b2507ee-587c-11e8-b656-a5f8c2a9295d_story.html.
  67. Susan Shirk, Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise (Oxford University Press, 2023), 258–261.
  68. Audrey Fritz, “China’s Evolving Conception of Civil-Military Collaboration,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, August 2, 2019, https://www.csis.org/blogs/trustee-china-hand/chinas-evolving-conception-civil-military-collaboration; “The Chinese Communist Party’s Military-Civil Fusion Policy,” US Department of State fact sheet, https://2017-2021.state.gov/military-civil-fusion/#:~:text=What%20is%20Military%2DCivil%20Fusion,world%20class%20military%E2%80%9D%20by%202049.
  69. Rush Doshi, The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order (Oxford University Press, 2021), 287.
  70. Doshi, The Long Game, 286–290.
  71. Lee Branstetter and Guangwei Li, “Does ‘Made in China 2025’ Work for China? Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms,” October 20, 2022, 1, 16, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4254356.
  72. David J. Lynch, “How the US-China Trade War Became a Conflict over the Future of Tech,” Washington Post, May 22, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/how-the-us-china-trade-war-became-a-conflict-over-the-future-of-tech/2019/05/22/18148d1c-7ccc-11e9-8ede-f4abf521ef17_story.html.
  73. House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, “Investigative Report on the US National Security Issues Posed by Chinese Telecommunications Companies Huawei and ZTE,” October 8, 2012, https://intelligence.house.gov/sites/intelligence.house.gov/files/documents/huawei-zte%20investigative%20report%20(final).pdf.
  74. Pottinger interview with the author, March 20, 2024.
  75. David Nakamura, Carol D. Leonnig, and Ellen Nakashima, “Matthew Pottinger faced Communist China’s intimidation as a reporter. He’s now at the White House shaping Trump’s hard line policy toward Beijing,” Washington Post, April 29, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/matthew-pottinger-faced-communist-chinas-intimidation-as-a-reporter-hes-now-at-the-white-house-shaping-trumps-hard-line-policy-toward-beijing/2020/04/28/5fb3f6d4-856e-11ea-ae26-989cfce1c7c7_story.html.
  76. Ryan Hass, Stronger: Adapting America’s China Strategy in an Age of Competitive Interdependence (Yale University Press, 2021), 99.
  77. David J. Lynch, “Trump Signs Partial Economic Deal with China, Calls Trade Pact a ‘Momentous Step,’” Washington Post, January 15, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trumps-new-china-deal-cements-emergence-of-managed-trade/2020/01/15/7892c446-372b-11ea-bf30-ad313e4ec754_story.html.
  78. “Disease Outbreak News—Japan,” World Health Organization, January 17, 2020, https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2020-DON237.

第 9 章｜愚蠢的供應鏈

  1. Gerry Shih and Lena H. Sun, “China Identifies New Strain of Coronavirus as Source of Pneumonia Outbreak,” Washington Post, January 10, 2020, A12.
  2. “World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains,” World Bank, xiii, https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2020.
  3. Joyce Gannon, “Charging Ahead: Eaton Electrical Unit Chief ‘Giving Space,’” The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, May 31, 2012, D1.
  4. Much of the Flex case study is drawn from David J. Lynch, “Business Unusual: How a Little-Known Company Navigated the Shortages and Shutdowns of the Pandemic While Pointing the Way to a Less China-Centric Future,” Washington Post, July 30, 2020, A1, https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/coronavirus-globalization-manufacturing/.
  5. White House, “Economic Report of the President,” March 2024, 196, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ERP-2024.pdf.
  6. White House, “Economic Report of the President,” March 2024, 195, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/ERP-2024.pdf.
  7. Willy C. Shih, “What Really Makes Toyota’s Production System Resilient,” Harvard Business Review, November 15, 2022, https://hbr.org/2022/11/what-really-makes-toyotas-production-system-resilient.
  8. “Judge Orders Ports Opened,” CNN, October 9, 2002, https://money.cnn.com/2002/10/08/news/ports_longshoremen/.
  9. US Census Bureau, “Manufacturers: Inventories to Sales Ratio [MNFCTRIRSA],” FRED Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, accessed April 26, 2024, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MNFCTRIRSA.
  10. “Basic Concept of the Toyota Production System,” Toyota, https://www.toyota-global.com/company/history_of_toyota/75years/data/automotive_business/production/system/change.html.
  11. Jeffrey H. Dyer, “Dedicated Assets: Japan’s Manufacturing Edge,” Harvard Business Review, November–December 1994, https://hbr.org/1994/11/dedicated-assets-japans-manufacturing-edge.
  12. David J. Lynch, “Tactics of Fiery White House Trade Adviser Draw New Scrutiny as Some of His Pandemic Moves Unravel,” Washington Post, September 2, 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/09/02/navarro-pandemic-coronavirus/.
  13. White House, “Remarks by President Trump, Vice President Pence, and Members of the Coronavirus Task Force in Press Briefing,” March 15, 2020, https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing-2/.
  14. Flex Ltd., Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2019, 32, https://s202.q4cdn.com/732614612/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/Q4-20-10K.pdf.
  15. Flex Ltd., Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2015, 39, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/866374/000104746915004931/a2224823z10-k.htm.
  16. Flex Ltd., Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2020, 36, https://s202.q4cdn.com/732614612/files/doc_financials/2020/q4/Q4-20-10K.pdf.
  17. Advaithi interview with the author, June 22, 2020.
  18. Advaithi interview with the author, June 22, 2020.
  19. Flex Ltd., “Q3 2020 Earnings Call,” January 30, 2020, https://s202.q4cdn.com/732614612/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/flex_fy20q3_transcript.pdf.
  20. Advaithi interview with the author, June 22, 2020.
  21. David J. Lynch, “Coronavirus Fallout Is Choking Economic Pipelines,” Washington Post, February 14, 2020, A1.
  22. Wang interview with the author, June 30, 2020.
  23. Inventories data can be found in the condensed consolidated balance sheets contained in Flex quarterly filings. Pre-pandemic inventories figure is here: Flex Ltd., Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended December 31, 2019, 4, https://s202.q4cdn.com/732614612/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/flex_10-q_fy20q3.pdf.
  24. Advaithi interview with the author, June 22, 2020.
  25. Lynch, “Coronavirus Fallout.”
  26. Torrel interview with the author, June 24, 2020.
  27. Flex, Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended June 26, 2020, 28, https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000866374/6760c976-a0f6-4c5a-985f-d5419e0c009d.pdf.
  28. Torrel interview with the author, June 24, 2020.
  29. Lynch, “Business Unusual.”
  30. Ana Swanson and Alan Rappeport, “Wilbur Ross Says Coronavirus Could Bring Jobs Back to the US,” New York Times, January 31, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/30/business/economy/wilbur-ross-coronavirus-jobs.html.
  31. Donald J. Trump, “Remarks at a White House Coronavirus Task Force Press Briefing,” April 2, 2020, American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara, https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-white-house-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing-18.
  32. David J. Lynch, “Raging Virus Triggers New Shutdown Orders and Economy Braces for Fresh Wave of Pain,” Washington Post, November 15, 2020, A1.
  33. International Trade Commission, “The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Freight Transportation Services and US Merchandise Imports,” https://www.usitc.gov/research_and_analysis/tradeshifts/2020/special_topic.html#_ftn16.
  34. David J. Lynch, “Shipping Woes Spell Trouble for Consumers,” Washington Post, January 25, 2021, A1.
  35. Lynch, “Shipping Woes.”
  36. White House, “Executive Order on America’s Supply Chains,” February 24, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/02/24/executive-order-on-americas-supply-chains/.
  37. “The Great Texas Freeze: February 11–20, 2021,” National Centers for Environmental Information, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, February 24, 2023, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/great-texas-freeze-february-2021.
  38. Jesse Thompson, “Texas Winter Deep Freeze Broke Refining, Petrochemical Supply Chains,” Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2021, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Southwest Economy, https://www.dallasfed.org/research/swe/2021/swe2102/swe2102c#n2.
  39. David J. Lynch, “West Virginia Factory Is Center Stage in Supply Chain Crisis, Showing Economy’s Strains,” Washington Post, May 8, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/05/08/manufacturing-supply-chain-crisis/.
  40. Institute for Supply Management, “Manufacturing PMI at 61.2%; May 2021 Manufacturing ISM Report on Business,” press release, June 1, 2021, https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-61-2-may-2021-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-301301816.html.
  41. David J. Lynch, “Global Supply-Line Woes May Soon Clear Shelves,” Washington Post, July 28, 2021, A1.
  42. International Monetary Fund, “Chapter 4: Global Trade and Value Chains During the Pandemic,” World Economic Outlook, April 2022, 95, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/04/19/world-economic-outlook-april-2022.
  43. David J. Lynch, “Biden Targets High Shipping Costs,” Washington Post, July 15, 2021, A19.
  44. David J. Lynch, “As Supply Lines Strain, Some Corporations Rewrite Production Playbook,” Washington Post, November 15, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/11/15/supply-chains-companies-strategy/.
  45. Lynch, “As Supply Lines Strain.”
  46. “Stanley Black & Decker Announces Opening of New Craftsman Plant in Fort Worth, Texas,” Stanley Black & Decker, May 15, 2019, https://www.stanleyblackanddecker.com/stanley-black-decker-announces-opening-new-craftsman-plant-fort-worth-texas.
  47. Stanley Black & Decker, Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript, April 28, 2022, 13, https://s29.q4cdn.com/245094436/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/SWK-USQ_Transcript_2022-04-28.pdf.
  48. Comparing the end of 2022 to the end of 2020. Figures drawn from Stanley Black & Decker Inc., Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2022, 76, https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000093556/c6f30c27-3877-4e39-9dc8-5ee04111da68.pdf; and Stanley Black & Decker Inc., Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended January 2, 2021, 80 https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000093556/7d346892-892a-41c7-adbf-ef6caf981b58.pdf.
  49. Lynch, “As Supply Lines Strain.”
  50. Stanley Black & Decker, Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript, April 28, 2022, 13, https://s29.q4cdn.com/245094436/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/SWK-USQ_Transcript_2022-04-28.pdf.
  51. White House, “Fact Sheet: Executive Order on Promoting Competition in the American Economy,” July 9, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/07/09/fact-sheet-executive-order-on-promoting-competition-in-the-american-economy/.
  52. US Department of Transportation, Maritime Administration, “Report to Congress on the Performance of Ports and the Intermodal System,” June 2005, iv, https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/18108.
  53. David J. Lynch, “Inside America’s Broken Supply Chain,” Washington Post, September 30, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2021/supply-chain-issues/?itid=ap_davidj.%20lynch.
  54. Michael Graczyk, “Biden Pitches Infrastructure Improvements,” Associated Press, November. 12, 2014.
  55. World Bank, “Connecting to Compete: Trade Logistics in the Global Economy,” 2018, 45, https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/576061531492034646/pdf/Connecting-to-compete-2018-trade-logistics-in-the-global-economy-the-logistics-performance-index-and-its-indicators.pdf.
  56. Lynch, “Inside America’s Broken Supply Chain.”
  57. Union Pacific Corporation, Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2019, 24, https://www.up.com/cs/groups/public/@uprr/@investor/documents/investordocuments/pdf_up_10k_02072020.pdf.
  58. “How Changes in Consumption Caused by COVID-19 Affected Inflation,” FRED Blog, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, January 5, 2023, https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2023/01/how-changes-in-consumption-caused-by-covid-19-affected-inflation/.
  59. Porcari interview with the author, April 25, 2024.
  60. Porcari interview with the author, April 25, 2024.
  61. Federal Maritime Commission, Bureau of Trade Analysis, “US Container Port Congestion and Related International Supply Chain Issues: Causes, Consequences and Challenges,” July 2015, 1, https://www.fmc.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/PortForumReport_FINALwebAll.pdf.
  62. White House, “Remarks by President Biden on the Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal,” November 10, 2021, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/11/10/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-deal-2/.
  63. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, US Department of Transportation, “Freight Logistics Optimization Works,” https://www.bts.gov/flow.
  64. Improvement can be seen in the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive.
  65. Vicky Forman and Ronak Gohel, “Reglobalization Is Driving Supply Chain Performance,” Gartner, July 15, 2024.
  66. Forman and Gohel, “Reglobalization.”
  67. Quote is from Flex Ltd., Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2023, p. 46; nearly $4 billion calculation represents the difference in total inventories disclosed on pg. 63 of the 2023 and 2019 10-Ks. The 2023 and 2019 forms are available at https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000866374/8a9b202b-597e-43b3-ac3d-a1e1f7bbfd42.pdf and https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000866374/e1a8df5c-924f-41c8-912e-d67df1be1fd2.pdf.
  68. Advaithi was interviewed at The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council Summit on December 12, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/video/events/leading-in-uncertain-times/4D7F4756-1942-4BB1-A159-E4CEC3F6EC45.html.

第 10 章｜大政府的回歸

  1. Joe Biden, United Steelworkers union candidate questionnaire, May 17, 2020.
  2. Adam Posen, “The Price of Nostalgia: America’s Self-Defeating Economic Retreat,” Foreign Affairs 100, no. 3 (2021): 28–43.
  3. Adam Entous, “The Untold History of the Biden Family,” New Yorker, August 15, 2022, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/08/22/the-untold-history-of-the-biden-family.
  4. Steven Levingston, “Joe Biden: Life Before the Presidency,” Miller Center, University of Virginia, https://millercenter.org/president/biden/life-before-the-presidency; Entous, “Untold History of Biden Family.”
  5. White House, “Remarks by President Biden at a Campaign Event, Scranton, PA,” April 16, 2024, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/04/16/remarks-by-president-biden-at-a-campaign-event-scranton-pa-2/.
  6. William J. Clinton, “Address at Convocation, University of Chicago,” June 12, 1999, https://1997-2001.state.gov/policy_remarks/1999/990612_clinton_chicago.html.
  7. Matt Viser, “Once the Poorest Senator, ‘Middle Class Joe’ Biden Has Reaped Millions in Income Since Leaving the Vice Presidency,” Washington Post, June 25, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/once-the-poorest-senator-middle-class-joe-biden-has-reaped-millions-in-income-since-leaving-the-vice-presidency/2019/06/25/931458a8-938d-11e9-b570-6416efdc0803_story.html.
  8. Evan Osnos, Joe Biden: The Life, the Run, and What Matters Now (Scribner, 2020), 24.
  9. Greene interview with the author, December 1, 2023.
  10. Congressional Record, Senate, bound edition, vol. 139, part 21, November 19, 1993, 30676–30678, https://www.congress.gov/bound-congressional-record/1993/11/19/senate-section.
  11. “Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj)/Gross Domestic Product,” FRED Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Pik; “Share of Gross Domestic Income: Employee Compensation Paid,” FRED Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A4002E1A156NBEA.
  12. Jannuzi interview with the author, October 18, 2023.
  13. Daniel Griswold, “Joe Biden’s So-So Record on Trade,” Cato Institute, August 25, 2008, https://www.cato.org/blog/joe-bidens-so-so-record-trade.
  14. Tim Draper, “I Will Promote Freedom at All Costs,” Medium, October 27, 2017, https://medium.com/@TimDraper/i-will-promote-freedom-at-all-costs-c1a8316e415e.
  15. Illia Kabachynskyi, “Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense Launches Accelerator of Innovative Development. Its Coordinator Is Loboyko, Mentioned in Tim Draper’s Book,” AIN.Capital, July 4, 2023, https://ain.capital/2023/07/04/ministry-of-defense-launches-accelerator-of-innovative-development/.
  16. Draper interview with the author, March 11, 2024.
  17. Eric Eldon, “Venture Firm Draper Fisher Jurvetson Goes to Russia,” VentureBeat, September 27, 2007, https://venturebeat.com/business/venture-firm-draper-fisher-jurvetson-goes-to-russia/.
  18. Rebecca Fannin, “The Silicon Valley Fallout from Waging Economic War Against Russia,” CNBC.com, March 17, 2022, https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/17/the-silicon-valley-fallout-from-waging-economic-war-against-russia.html.
  19. Joyu Wang, “Tim Draper Touts Decision to Pull Out of China,” Wall Street Journal, November 18, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/tim-draper-touts-decision-to-pull-out-of-china-11668768693.
  20. Draper interview with author, March 11, 2024.
  21. “2023 Annual Meeting,” Warren Buffett Archive, May 6, 2023, https://buffett.cnbc.com/2023-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting/.
  22. Larry Fink’s Chairman’s Letter, “To Our Shareholders,” BlackRock, March 24, 2022, https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/investor-relations/2022-larry-fink-chairmans-letter.
  23. David J. Lynch, Michael Birnbaum, Ellen Nakashima, and Paul Sonne, “Historic Sanctions on Russia Had Roots in Emotional Appeal from Zelensky,” Washington Post, February 27, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/27/russia-ukraine-sanctions-swift-central-bank/.
  24. “EU Sanctions Against Russia Explained,” European Council, last reviewed December 16, 2024, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions-against-russia/sanctions-against-russia-explained/.
  25. US Department of the Treasury, “US Treasury Announces Unprecedented & Expansive Sanctions Against Russia, Imposing Swift and Severe Economic Costs,” press release, February 24, 2022, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0608.
  26. Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman, Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy (Henry Holt, 2023), 139.
  27. “Yale CELI List of Companies Leaving and Staying in Russia,” Chief Executive Leadership Institute, Yale School of Management, updated May 19, 2024, https://www.yalerussianbusinessretreat.com/.
  28. David J. Lynch, “Tunisia Among Countries Seeing Major Economic Consequences from War in Ukraine,” Washington Post, April 14, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/04/14/ukraine-war-economic-impact-tunisia/.
  29. Federal Foreign Office, “Speech by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock at the Business Forum of the 20th Conference of the Heads of German Missions,” September 6, 2022, https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/business-forum-amb-conference/2551336.
  30. Julian Wettengel, “Germany, EU Remain Heavily Dependent on Imported Fossil Fuels,” Clean Energy Wire, April 3, 2024, https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-dependence-imported-fossil-fuels.
  31. “US Regular All Formulations Gas Price,” FRED Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW.
  32. David J. Lynch, “War Could Be a Global Economic ‘Game Changer,’ Not Just for Now,” Washington Post, March 7, 2022, A1, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/03/05/global-economy-russia-ukraine/.
  33. Daniel Yergin, “Putin Can’t Count on the Global Oil Market,” Wall Street Journal, December 26, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-cant-count-on-the-global-oil-market-price-cap-revenue-production-cut-friedman-biden-eu-russia-energy-11672065849.
  34. Cheng Ting-Fang, “TSMC Founder Morris Chang Says Globalization ‘Almost Dead,’” Nikkei Asia, December 7, 2022, https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Most-read-in-2022/TSMC-founder-Morris-Chang-says-globalization-almost-dead.
  35. Devin Henry, “Jake Sullivan: Minneapolis Native Among Those to Hatch Iranian Nuclear Deal,” MinnPost, November 27, 2013, https://www.minnpost.com/dc-dispatches/2013/11/jake-sullivan-minneapolis-native-among-those-hatch-iranian-nuclear-deal/.
  36. Jake Sullivan, “The New Old Democrats,” Democracy, June 20, 2018, https://democracyjournal.org/arguments/the-new-old-democrats/.
  37. Jennifer Harris and Jake Sullivan, “America Needs a New Economic Philosophy. Foreign Policy Experts Can Help,” Foreign Policy, February 7, 2020.
  38. Sullivan interview with the author, April 5, 2024.
  39. Nick Gass, “Trump: ‘We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country,’” Politico, May 2, 2016, https://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/05/trump-china-rape-america-222689.
  40. Mark Wu, “The ‘China, Inc.’ Challenge to Global Trade Governance,” Harvard International Law Journal 57, no. 2 (2016): 270–272, https://www.law.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/WuMark.pdf.
  41. David J. Lynch, “China Government Control Endures Through Xi’s Embrace of Market,” Bloomberg, December 3, 2014, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-12-04/china-government-control-endures-through-xi-s-embrace-of-market?embedded-checkout=true.
  42. White House, “Remarks by Vice President Joe Biden at the World Economic Forum,” January 18, 2017, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2017/01/18/remarks-vice-president-joe-biden-world-economic-forum.
  43. “Industrial Production: Manufacturing (NAICS),” FRED Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN.
  44. White House, “Remarks by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Renewing American Economic Leadership at the Brookings Institution,” April 27, 2023, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/04/27/remarks-by-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-on-renewing-american-economic-leadership-at-the-brookings-institution/.
  45. In Sullivan’s defense, the US weighted average tariff rate dropped from 3.9 percent in 1990 to 2.1 percent in 2000 while the world average fell from a peak of 8.6 percent to 5 percent, according to the World Bank: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS?locations=US-1W.
  46. Martin Wolf, “America Is Feeling Buyer’s Remorse at the World It Built,” Financial Times, June 27, 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/77faa249-0f88-4700-95d2-ecd7e9e745f9.
  47. Summers interview with the author, June 12, 2024.
  48. “Biden: The Future of the Chip Industry Is ‘Made in America,’ ” CNBC, September 9, 2022, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QckvbzJJoi4.
  49. White House, “Remarks by President Biden on Rebuilding American Manufacturing Through the CHIPS and Science Act,” September 9, 2022, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/09/09/remarks-by-president-biden-on-rebuilding-american-manufacturing-through-the-chips-and-science-act/.
  50. Bernstein interview with the author, May 10, 2024.
  51. Nelson Lichtenstein and Judith Stein, A Fabulous Failure: The Clinton Presidency and the Transformation of American Capitalism (Princeton University Press, 2023), 54.
  52. Even discounting the pandemic, real manufacturing output at the end of 2019 was marginally lower than when Trump took office in 2017. Factory employment rose by 419,000 over the same period, a marginal improvement over the 383,000 gained during Obama’s second term. See “Industrial Production: Manufacturing (NAICS),” FRED Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN; and “All Employees, Manufacturing,” FRED Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP#0.
  53. “Total Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States,” FRED Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLMFGCONS; “All Employees, Construction,” FRED Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USCONS.
  54. White House, “Remarks by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Renewing American Economic Leadership at the Brookings Institution,” April 27, 2023, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/04/27/remarks-by-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-on-renewing-american-economic-leadership-at-the-brookings-institution/.
  55. Glencora Haskins, Mark Muro, and Maya Garg, “‘Place-based Industrial Strategy’ Responds to Past and Future Industrial and Labor Market Shocks,” Brookings Institution, August 29, 2024, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/place-based-industrial-strategy-responds-to-past-and-future-industrial-and-labor-market-shocks/?share=interactive-1784920.
  56. “2024 Ohio Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls,” RealClear Polling, May 2024, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/ohio/trump-vs-biden.
  57. As of October 2024.
  58. “All Employees: All Employees Manufacturing/All Employees Nonfarm,” FRED Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Gor.
  59. Furman interview with the author, May 9, 2024.
  60. Raimondo interview with the author, May 31, 2024.
  61. Josh Boak, “Commerce Head Out to Save US Jobs, 1 Computer Chip at a Time,” Associated Press, October 18, 2021, https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-technology-business-united-states-rhode-island-7dc6ee7312bf4653c16d873643b9ac90.
  62. “All Employees: Manufacturing in Rhode Island,” FRED Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RIMFG.
  63. Raimondo interview with the author, May 31, 2024.
  64. White House, “Remarks by President Biden on Bidenomics,” June 28, 2023, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/06/28/remarks-by-president-biden-on-bidenomics-chicago-il/.
  65. Yellen interview with the author, June 28, 2024.
  66. “Real Broad Dollar Index,” FRED Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RTWEXBGS.
  67. Ana Swanson and Tripp Mickle, “The White House Bet Big on Intel. Will It Backfire?,” New York Times, October 24, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/24/us/politics/intel-chips-biden.html.
  68. Joelle Anselmo, “TSMC Delays Second Arizona Chip Plant to 2027 or 2028,” Manufacturing Dive, January 19, 2024, https://www.manufacturingdive.com/news/tsmc-delays-second-arizona-chip-factory-to-2027/704937/.
  69. David J. Lynch, “Biden’s ‘Buy America’ Bid Runs into Manufacturing Woes It Aims to Fix,” Washington Post, February 18, 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2023/02/18/biden-buy-america-roads-bridges/.
  70. Shannon Osaka, “Biden’s $7.5 Billion Investment in EV Charging Has Only Produced 7 Stations in Two Years,” Washington Post, March 29, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2024/03/28/ev-charging-stations-slow-rollout/.
  71. Raimondo interview with the author, May 31, 2024.
  72. “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Used Cars and Trucks in US City Average,” FRED Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SETA02.
  73. Sujai Shivakumar, Charles Wessner, and Thomas Howell, “The Strategic Importance of Legacy Chips,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 3, 2023, https://www.csis.org/analysis/strategic-importance-legacy-chips.
  74. Rockwell Automation, “2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K,” November 8, 2023, 45, https://www.rockwellautomation.com/content/dam/rockwell-automation/documents/pdf/company/about-us/ir/2023/Web-Ready_Rockwell-Automation_2023-Annual-Report_Web.pdf.
  75. Moret interview with the author, January 31, 2024.
  76. Lincicome interview with the author, May 24, 2024.
  77. “Is Globalization Really in Retreat?,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, October 30, 2023, https://www.piie.com/events/globalization-really-retreat.
  78. Yellen interview with the author, June 28, 2024.
  79. Autor interview with the author, August 17, 2023.
  80. David J. Lynch, “The US Dominates the World of Big Data. But Trump’s NAFTA Demands Could Put That at Risk,” Washington Post, November 29, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trumps-trade-deficit-obsession-could-hurt-leading-american-industries/2017/11/27/b2b8122c-cbb5-11e7-8321-481fd63f174d_story.html.
  81. “US Chamber FOIA Requests on US Digital Trade Policy,” US Chamber of Commerce, January 31, 2024, https://www.uschamber.com/international/trade-agreements/u-s-chamber-foia-requests-on-u-s-digital-trade-policy.
  82. Rethink Trade, “Biden Digital Trade Update Paved Way for Smart Data Security Executive Order,” press release, February 28, 2024, https://rethinktrade.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/PressRelease_2.28.2024.pdf.
  83. This account of the San Francisco meeting comes from a source with direct knowledge of the events.
  84. William H. Overholt, “Another Outing for Myth-Based Diplomacy,” Global Asia 18, no. 4 (2023), https://www.globalasia.org/v18no4/focus/another-outing-for-myth-based-diplomacy_william-h-overholt; Overholt interview with the author, August 16, 2024.
  85. Wang Jisi et al., “Did America Get China Wrong? The Engagement Debate,” Foreign Affairs 97, no. 4 (2018): 183–195.
  86. Campbell interview with the author, December 12, 2023.

第 11 章｜智者許下的承諾

  1. Bob Ulrich interview with the author, June 13, 2024.
  2. David H. Autor et al., “The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States,” American Economic Review 103, no. 6 (2013): 2140, https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/the%20china%20syndrome%202013.pdf.
  3. Brian Ulrich interview with the author, June 10, 2024.
  4. In 2023, Trumbull County manufacturing employment of 9,429 was down 65 percent from 26,867 in 2001 according to US Bureau of Labor Statistics, “All Employees in Private Manufacturing for All Establishment Sizes in Trumbull County, Ohio, NSA,” Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, accessed via database at https://www.bls.gov/data/home.htm.
  5. Robert E. Lighthizer, No Trade Is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America’s Workers (Broadside Books, 2023), 318.
  6. “2024 Republican Party Platform,” July 8, 2024, American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara, https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/2024-republican-party-platform.
  7. Jeff Stein, “Trump Aides Explore Plans to Boost Musk Effort by Wresting Control from Congress,” Washington Post, November 13, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/11/13/elon-musk-government-efficiency-congress-budget-law/.
  8. Matthew Schmitz, “There’s One Person Trump Absolutely Needs in His Administration,” New York Times, November 20, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/20/opinion/trump-treasury-robert-lighthizer.html.
  9. Arvind Subramanian, Martin Kessler, and Emanuele Properzi, “Trade Hyperglobalization Is Dead. Long Live . . . ?,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, November 2023, https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/trade-hyperglobalization-dead-long-live.
  10. M. Ayhan Kose and Alen Mulabdic, “Global Trade Has Nearly Flatlined. Populism Is Taking a Toll on Growth,” World Bank, February 22, 2024, https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/voices/global-trade-has-nearly-flatlined-populism-taking-toll-growth.
  11. For services trade growth relative to goods trade, see Richard Baldwin, “The Third Big Shift in Globalization: The Future of Trade Is Intermediate Services,” virtual presentation at Bendheim Center for Finance, Princeton University, June 27, 2024, https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/my-charts-from-27-june-2024-presentation-markus-academy-baldwin-fln9e/. For forecast of future growth see Richard Baldwin, “The Peak Globalisation Myth: Part 4—Services Trade Did Not Peak,” VoxEU, September 3, 2022, https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/peak-globalisation-myth-part-4-services-trade-did-not-peak.
  12. Richard Baldwin, “Spotlight Intervention,” 60th Anniversary of UN Trade and Development Global Leaders Forum, June 13, 2024, https://unctad.org/system/files/non-official-document/unctad-at-60-ppt-richard-baldwin_en.pdf.
  13. Francois de Soyres and Dylan Moore, “Assessing China’s Efforts to Increase Self-Reliance,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) Note, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 2, 2024, https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3436.
  14. Laura Alfaro and Davin Chor, “Global Supply Chains: The Looming ‘Great Reallocation,’” paper prepared for the Jackson Hole Symposium, organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August 24–26, 2023, 3, https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/9747/JH_Paper_Alfaro.pdf.
  15. Acme United, Q3 2024 Earnings Call, October 18, 2024.
  16. Alfaro and Chor, “Global Supply Chains,” 27–28.
  17. Grace Fan, “US-China Decoupling,” TS Lombard, June 21, 2024, 4.
  18. David J. Lynch, “Flood of Chinese Imports Could Renew Trade Tensions, Threaten US Jobs,” Washington Post, March 18, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/03/18/china-imports-trade-cars-electronics/.
  19. Richard Baldwin et al., “Hidden Exposure: Measuring US Supply Chain Resilience,” paper drafted for the Brookings Papers on Academic Activity conference, September 28–29, 2023, 19, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/2_Baldwin-et-al_unembargoed.pdf.
  20. Alfaro and Chor, “Global Supply Chains,” 22.
  21. Alfaro and Chor, “Global Supply Chains,” 33.
  22. “Q1 Procurement Uptick: A Beacon of Hope for Western Retail?,” Q2 Barometer, QIMA, April 7, 2024, https://www.qima.com/qima-news/q2-2024-barometer.
  23. Breteau interview with the author, February 14, 2024.
  24. David J. Lynch and Jeanne Whalen, “US and Chinese Automakers Are Headed in Completely Different Directions,” Washington Post, May 18, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/05/18/china-us-ev-cars/.
  25. Helene Cooper, “New Vehicles, Face Paint and a 1,200-Foot Fall: The US Army Prepares for War with China,” New York Times, October 29, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/29/us/politics/us-military-army-china.html.
  26. Matt Pottinger and Mike Gallagher, “No Substitute for Victory: America’s Competition with China Must Be Won, Not Managed,” Foreign Affairs 103, no. 3 (2024): 25–39.
  27. Bannon interview with the author, January 10, 2024.
  28. Craig Kafura, “American Views of China Hit All-Time Low,” 2024 Chicago Council Survey, Chicago Council on Global Affairs, October 24, 2024, https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/american-views-china-hit-all-time-low.
  29. David J. Lynch, “US-China Rivalry Risks Splintering Global Economy, IMF Chief Warns,” Washington Post, November 12, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/11/12/us-china-rivalry-risks-splintering-global-economy-imf-chief-warns/.
  30. “Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence,” World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, April 2024, 24, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/04/16/world-economic-outlook-april-2024.
  31. Yellen interview with the author, June 28, 2024.
  32. Sun Yu, “BlackRock Shelves China Bond ETF,” Financial Times, November 12, 2022, https://www.ft.com/content/5bc4c8c6-ebac-4b2b-84a5-c918dc4de614.
  33. Jamieson L. Greer, “Testimony Before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission,” May 23, 2024, Hearing on Key Economic Strategies for Leveling the US-China Playing Field: Trade, Investment, and Technology, 30, https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2024-05/Jamieson_Greer_Testimony.pdf.
  34. David J. Lynch, “US-China Economic Ties Continue to Fray, Despite Biden–Xi Meeting,” Washington Post, November 18, 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/11/17/china-trade-investors-markets/.
  35. American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, China Business Report 2023, not publicly available, 15.
  36. George H. W. Bush and Brent Scowcroft, A World Transformed (Alfred A. Knopf, 1998), xiii.
  37. Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, 118th Congress, First Session, “Evaluating US-China Policy in the Era of Strategic Competition,” February 9, 2023, https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/95df7f8b-9b07-07c6-ac3f-6cdeeb25e3f4/02%2009%2023%20—%20Evaluating%20US-China%20Policy%20in%20the%20Era%20of%20Strategic%20Competition.pdf.
  38. Paul Krugman, “Hair of the Dog,” New York Times, March 3, 2008, https://archive.nytimes.com/krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/03/hair-of-the-dog/.
  39. David Autor et al., “On the Persistence of the China Shock,” Working Paper No. 29401, National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2021, https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29401/w29401.pdf.
  40. Nick Carey, “China’s BYD Will Consider Second Europe Plant in 2025, Executive Says,” Reuters, May 9, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/byd-will-consider-second-european-plant-2025executive-says-2024-05-09/.
  41. Curran McSwiggan, “The Future for Non-College Women Is Bleak,” Third Way, October 24, 2023, https://www.thirdway.org/memo/the-future-for-non-college-women-is-bleak?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosam&stream=top.
  42. Kristalina Georgieva, “AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let’s Make Sure It Benefits Humanity,” International Monetary Fund, January 14, 2024, https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity.
  43. “Mark Cuban Reveals AI’s Job Impact,” Bloomberg Television, March 15, 2024, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XAxmbswoO2s.
  44. Burning Glass Institute and the Society for Human Resource Management, “Generative Artificial Intelligence and the Workforce,” February 1, 2024, 4–5, https://shrm-res.cloudinary.com/image/upload/v1706729099/AI/CPR-230956_Research_Gen-AI-Workplace_FINAL_1.pdf.
  45. Mauro Cazzaniga et al., “Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work,” IMF Staff Discussion Notes, January 2024, 2, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2024/01/14/Gen-AI-Artificial-Intelligence-and-the-Future-of-Work-542379.
  46. David Autor, “AI Could Actually Help Rebuild the Middle Class,” Noema, February 12, 2024, https://www.noemamag.com/how-ai-could-help-rebuild-the-middle-class/.
  47. Cazzaniga et al., “Gen-AI,” 15.
  48. James Aylward, Elizabeth Laderman, Luiz E. Oliveira, and Gladys Teng, “How Much Did the CARES Act Help Households Stay Afloat?,” FRBSF Economic Letter, July 6, 2021, https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/el2021-18.pdf.
  49. Paulson interview with the author, December 12, 2023.
  50. “Expanding Economic Opportunity for More Americans: Bipartisan Policies to Increase Work, Wages, and Skills,” Aspen Institute Economic Strategy Group, February 2019, 20, https://www.aspeninstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/ESG_Report_Expanding-Economic-Opportunity-for-More-Americans.pdf.
  51. Daron Acemoglu, “America Is Sleepwalking into an Economic Storm,” New York Times, October 17, 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/17/opinion/economy-us-aging-work-force-ai.html.
  52. David J. Lynch, “For Pa. Presidential Bellwether, Inflation Is Just the Latest Challenge,” Washington Post, August 17, 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/08/17/erie-politics-inflation-left-behind/.
  53. “An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034,” Congressional Budget Office, June 18, 2024, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60039.
  54. In 2023, corporate income taxes were equal to 1.6 percent of gross domestic product, down from 2.6 percent of GDP in 1979, the year before Reagan’s election. One percent of the $29 trillion GDP would be $290 billion. Statistics from “historical budget data” section of this report: “Update to the Budget: 2024 to 2034,” Congressional Budget Office, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60039.
  55. David J. Lynch, “Biden Wants to Crack Down on Corporate Tax Loopholes, Resuming a Battle His Predecessors Lost,” Washington Post, April 20, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/04/20/corporate-tax-loopholes-biden/.
  56. David J. Lynch, “Biden Wants to Crack Down.”
  57. Brad Setser, “Cross-Border Rx: Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and US International Tax Policy,” in Testimony before the Finance Committee, Senate, 118th Congress, First Session, May 11, 2023, https://www.cfr.org/report/cross-border-rx-pharmaceutical-manufacturers-and-us-international-tax-policy.
  58. Setser, “Cross-Border Rx”; Brad Setser, “The Dangerous Myth of Deglobalization: Misperceptions of the Global Economy Are Driving Bad Policies,” Foreign Affairs, June 4, 2024, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/globalization-dangerous-myth-economy-brad-setser.
  59. Setser interview with the author, June 6, 2024.
  60. “Trends in the Distribution of Income,” Congressional Budget Office, October 25, 2011, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/42537.
  61. Pol Antràs et al., “Globalization, Inequality and Welfare,” Journal of International Economics 108 (2017): 388, https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/antras/files/agi_published.pdf.
  62. Pol Antràs, “De-Globalization? Global Value Chains in the Post-Covid Age,” Working Paper No. 28115, National Bureau of Economic Research, November 2020, 5, https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28115/w28115.pdf.
  63. Shanay Gracia, “Majority of Americans Take a Dim View of Increased Trade with Other Countries,” Pew Research Center, July 29, 2024, https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/07/29/majority-of-americans-take-a-dim-view-of-increased-trade-with-other-countries/.
  64. David Autor et al., “Help for the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States,” Working Paper No. 32082, National Bureau of Economic Research, January 2024, https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w32082/w32082.pdf.
  65. Kimberly Bayard, Tomaz Cajner, Vivi Gregorich, and Maria D. Tito, “Are Manufacturing Jobs Still Good Jobs? An Exploration of the Manufacturing Wage Premium,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1, https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2022.011.

結語｜全球化的新藍圖

  1. “Presidential Approval Ratings: Bill Clinton,” Gallup, https://news.gallup.com/poll/116584/presidential-approval-ratings-bill-clinton.aspx.
  2. Nelson Lichtenstein and Judith Stein, A Fabulous Failure: The Clinton Presidency and the Transformation of American Capitalism (Princeton University Press, 2023).
  3. Sperling interview with the author, October 12, 2023.
  4. Richard Wike et al., “Social Media Seen as Mostly Good for Democracy Across Many Nations, but US Is a Major Outlier,” Pew Research Center, December 6, 2022, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2022/12/06/social-media-seen-as-mostly-good-for-democracy-across-many-nations-but-u-s-is-a-major-outlier.

 

 

參考資料

專書

Acemoglu, Daron, and Simon Johnson. Power and Progress: Our 1000-Year Struggle over Technology & Prosperity. PublicAffairs, 2023.

Allen, Jonathan, and Amie Parnes. Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton’s Doomed Campaign. Crown, 2017.

Applebaum, Anne. Autocracy, Inc.: The Dictators Who Want to Run the World. Doubleday, 2024.

Bader, Jeffrey. Obama and China’s Rise: An Insider’s Account of America’s Asia Strategy. Brookings Institution Press, 2012.

Baker, Peter, and Susan Glasser. The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017–2021. Doubleday, 2022.

Baldwin, Richard. The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization. Belknap, 2016.

Barnow, Burt S., and Jeffrey Smith. “Employment and Training Programs.” In vol. 2 of Economics of Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States, edited by Robert A. Moffitt. University of Chicago Press, 2016.

Bayoumi, Tamim. Unfinished Business: The Unexplored Causes of the Financial Crisis and the Lessons Yet to Be Learned. Yale University Press, 2018.

Bergsten, Fred, and Joseph E. Gagnon. Currency Conflict and Trade Policy: A New Strategy for the United States. Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2017.

Bernanke, Ben S. 21st Century Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve from the Great Inflation to COVID-19. W. W. Norton, 2022.

Blustein, Paul. Schism: China, America and the Fracturing of the Global Trading System. Centre for International Governance Innovation, 2019.

Boughton, James. “Russia: From Rebirth to Crisis to Recovery.” In Tearing Down Walls: The International Monetary Fund, 1990–1999. International Monetary Fund, 2012.

Branch, Taylor. The Clinton Tapes: Wrestling History with the President. Simon & Schuster, 2009.

Brender, Anton, and Florence Pisani. Global Imbalances and the Collapse of Globalized Finance. Center for European Policy Studies, 2010.

Bush, George H. W., and Brent Scowcroft. A World Transformed. Alfred A. Knopf, 1998.

Case, Anne, and Angus Deaton. Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism. Princeton University Press, 2020.

Catao, Luis A. V., and Maurice Obstfeld, eds. Meeting Globalization’s Challenges: Policies to Make Trade Work for All. International Monetary Fund and Princeton University Press, 2019.

Clinton, Bill. My Life. Alfred A. Knopf, 2004.

Clinton, Hillary Rodham. What Happened. Simon & Schuster, 2017.

Davis, Bob, and Lingling Wei. Superpower Showdown: How the Battle Between Trump and Xi Threatens a New Cold War. Harper Business, 2020.

Doshi, Rush. The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order. Oxford University Press, 2021.

Draper III, William H. The Startup Game: Inside the Partnership Between Venture Capitalists and Entrepreneurs. Palgrave Macmillan, 2011.

Farrell, Henry, and Abraham Newman. Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy. Henry Holt, 2023.

Foer, Franklin. The Last Politician: Inside Joe Biden’s White House and the Struggle for America’s Future. Penguin, 2023.

Foley, Elizabeth Price. The Tea Party Movement: Three Principles. Cambridge University Press, 2012.

Friedberg, Aaron L. Getting China Wrong. Polity, 2022.

Frieden, Jeffry A. Global Capitalism: Its Fall and Rise in the Twentieth Century. W. W. Norton, 2006.

Friedman, Thomas L. The Lexus and the Olive Tree. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1999.

Geithner, Timothy F. Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises. Crown, 2014.

Gerstle, Gary. The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order: America and the World in the Free Market Era. Oxford University Press, 2022.

Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou. The Unequal Effects of Globalization. With Greg Larson. MIT Press, 2023.

Goodman, Peter. How the World Ran Out of Everything: Inside the Global Supply Chain. Mariner Books, 2024.

Hadley, Stephen J., ed. Hand-Off: The Foreign Policy George W. Bush Passed to Barack Obama. Brookings Institution Press, 2023.

Hass, Ryan. Stronger: Adapting America’s China Strategy in an Age of Competitive Interdependence. Yale University Press, 2021.

Hubbard, Glenn. The Wall and the Bridge: Fear and Opportunity in Disruption’s Wake. Yale University Press, 2022.

Irwin, Douglas A. Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy. University of Chicago Press, 2017.

Judis, John. The Populist Explosion. Columbia Global Reports, 2016.

Judis, John B., and Ruy Teixeira. Where Have All the Democrats Gone? The Soul of the Party in the Age of Extremes. Henry Holt, 2023.

Klein, Matthew, and Michael Pettis. Trade Wars Are Class Wars. Yale University Press, 2020.

Kletzer, Lori G., and Howard Rosen. “Easing the Adjustment Burden on US Workers.” In The United States and the World Economy: Foreign Economic Policy for the Next Decade, edited by C. Fred Bergsten. Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2005.

Lardy, Nicholas. Integrating China into the Global Economy. Brookings Institution Press, 2002.

Levinson, Marc. The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger. Princeton University Press, 2006.

Lichtenstein, Nelson, and Judith Stein. A Fabulous Failure: The Clinton Presidency and the Transformation of American Capitalism. Princeton University Press, 2023.

Lighthizer, Robert E. No Trade Is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America’s Workers. Broadside Books, 2023.

Mallaby, Sebastian. The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future. Penguin, 2022.

Mann, James. The China Fantasy. Viking Penguin, 2007.

Maraniss, David. First in His Class: The Biography of Bill Clinton. Simon & Schuster, 1995.

McGregor, Richard. The Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers. HarperCollins, 2010.

Miller, Chris. Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology. Scribner, 2022.

Mohsin, Saleha. Paper Soldiers: How the Weaponization of the Dollar Changed the World Order. Portfolio Penguin, 2024.

Mutz, Diana C. Winners and Losers: The Psychology of Foreign Trade. Princeton University Press, 2021.

Obama, Barack. A Promised Land. Crown, 2020.

Osnos, Evan. Joe Biden: The Life, the Run, and What Matters Now. Scribner, 2020.

Paulson Jr., Henry M. Dealing with China: An Insider Unmasks the New Economic Superpower. Twelve, 2015.

Paulson Jr., Henry M. On The Brink: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System. Business Plus, 2010.

Reddaway, Peter, and Dmitri Glinski. The Tragedy of Russia’s Reforms: Market Bolshevism Against Democracy. United States Institute of Peace Press, 2001.

Reich, Robert. Locked in the Cabinet. Vintage Books, 1997.

Rodrik, Dani. Has Globalization Gone Too Far? Institute of International Economics, 1997.

Rubin, Robert E., and Jacob Weisberg. In an Uncertain World: Tough Choices from Wall Street to Washington. Random House, 2003.

Rudd, Kevin. The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the US and Xi Jinping’s China. PublicAffairs, 2022.

Schwarzman, Stephen. What It Takes: Lessons in the Pursuit of Excellence. Simon & Schuster, 2019.

Sheffi, Yossi. The Power of Resilience: How the Best Companies Manage the Unexpected. MIT Press, 2017.

Shirk, Susan. Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise. Oxford University Press, 2023.

Sides, John, Michael Tesler, and Lynn Vavreck. Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America. Princeton University Press, 2018.

Sorkin, Andrew Ross. Too Big to Fail: The Inside Story of How Wall Street and Washington Fought to Save the Financial System—and Themselves. Viking Penguin, 2009.

Sperling, Gene. Economic Dignity. Penguin Books, 2021.

Stiglitz, Joseph. Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump. W. W. Norton, 2018.

Tan, Yeling. Disaggregating China, Inc.: State Strategies in the Liberal Economic Order. Cornell University Press, 2021.

Tooze, Adam. Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World. Viking, 2018.

VanGrasstek, Craig. The History and Future of the World Trade Organization. WTO, 2013.

Waldman, Michael. POTUS Speaks. Simon & Schuster, 2000.

Wilson, Edward O. The Social Conquest of Earth. W. W. Norton, 2012.

Wong, Chun Han. Party of One: The Rise of Xi Jinping and China’s Superpower Future. Avid Reader, 2023.

Woodward, Bob. The Secret Man. Simon & Schuster, 2005.

Zelizer, Julian, ed. The Presidency of Donald J. Trump. Princeton University Press, 2022.

文章

Acemoglu, Daron, David H. Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson, and Brendan Price. “Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s.” Journal of Labor Economics 34, no. S1, part 2 (2016): S141–S198. https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/Import%20Competition%20and%20the%20Great%20US%20Employment%20Sag.pdf.

Acharya, Viral, and Philipp Schnabl. “Do Global Banks Spread Global Imbalances? The Case of Asset-Backed Commercial Paper During the Financial Crisis of 2007–09.” Paper presented at the 10th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, hosted by the International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, November 5–6, 2009. https://www.imf.org/external/np/res/seminars/2009/arc/pdf/acharya.pdf.

Alfaro, Laura, and Davin Chor. “Global Supply Chains: The Looming ‘Great Reallocation.’” Paper prepared for the Jackson Hole Symposium, organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August 24–26, 2023. https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/9747/JH_Paper_Alfaro.pdf.

Amiti, Mary, Stephen J. Redding, and David Weinstein. “The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on US Prices and Welfare.” Working Paper No. 25672. National Bureau of Economic Research, March 2019. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25672/w25672.pdf.

Antràs, Pol. “De-Globalization? Global Value Chains in the Post-Covid Age.” Working Paper No. 28115. National Bureau of Economic Research, November 2020. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28115/w28115.pdf.

Antràs, Pol, Alonso de Gortaria, and Oleg Itskhokib. “Globalization, Inequality and Welfare.” Journal of International Economics 108 (2017): 387–412. https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/antras/files/agi_published.pdf.

Autor, David H., Anne Beck, David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson. “Help for the Heartland? The Employment and Electoral Effects of the Trump Tariffs in the United States.” Working Paper No. 32082. National Bureau of Economic Research, January 2024. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w32082/w32082.pdf.

Autor, David H., David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson. “The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States.” American Economic Review 103, no. 6 (2013): 2121–2168. https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/the%20china%20syndrome%202013.pdf.

Autor, David H., David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson. “On the Persistence of the China Shock.” Working Paper No. 29401. National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2021. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29401/w29401.pdf.

Autor, David H., David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson, and Kaveh Majlesi. “Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure.” American Economic Review 110, no. 10 (2020): 3139–3183. https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20170011.

Baily, Martin Neil, and Robert Z. Lawrence. “What Happened to the Great US Job Machine? The Role of Trade and Electronic Offshoring.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 2 (2004): 211–281. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2004/06/2004b_bpea_baily.pdf.

Baldwin, Richard, Rebecca Freeman, and Angelos Theodorakopoulos. “Hidden Exposure: Measuring US Supply Chain Resilience.” Paper drafted for the Brookings Papers on Academic Activity conference, September 28–29, 2023. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/2_Baldwin-et-al_unembargoed.pdf.

Benzow, August. “Economic Renaissance or Fleeting Recovery? Left-Behind Counties See Boom in Jobs and Businesses amid Widening Divides.” Economic Innovation Group, July 8, 2024. https://eig.org/left-behind-places/.

Bernanke, Ben, Carol Bertaut, Laurie Pounder DeMarco, and Steven Kamin. “International Capital Flows and the Returns to Safe Assets in the United States, 2003–2007.” International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1014. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 2011. https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2011/1014/ifdp1014.pdf.

Bertaut, Carol, Laurie Pounder DeMarco, Steven Kamin, and Ralph Tyron. “ABS Inflows to the United States and the Global Financial Crisis.” International Finance Discussion Paper No. 1028. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August 2011. https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2011/1028/ifdp1028.pdf.

Blinder, Alan. “The Free Trade Paradox: The Bad Politics of a Good Idea.” Foreign Affairs 98, no. 1 (2019): 119–128.

Bloom, Nicholas, Kyle Handley, André Kurmann, and Philip Luck. “The China Shock Revisited: Job Reallocation and Industry Switching in US Labor Markets.” Working Paper No. 33098. National Bureau of Economic Research, November 2024. http://www.nber.org/papers/w33098.

Boehm, Christoph E., Aaron Flaaen, and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar. “The Role of Global Supply Chains in the Transmission of Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the Tōhoku Earthquake.” Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) Note, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, May 2, 2016. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/feds-notes/2016/role-of-global-supply-chains-in-the-transmission-of-shocks-20160502.html.

Branstetter, Lee, and Nicholas Lardy. “China’s Embrace of Globalization.” Working Paper No. 12373. National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2006. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w12373/w12373.pdf.

Branstetter, Lee, and Guangwei Li. “Does ‘Made in China 2025’ Work for China? Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms.” October 20, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4254356.

Broz, J. Lawrence, Jeffry Frieden, and Stephen Weymouth. “Populism in Place: The Economic Geography of the Globalization Backlash.” International Organization 75, no. 2 (2021): 464–494. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/populism-in-place-the-economic-geography-of-the-globalization-backlash/98ED873D925E0590CB9A78AEC68BB439.

Charles, Kerwin Kofi, Erik Hurst, and Matthew J. Notowidigdo. “Housing Booms, Manufacturing Decline, and Labor Market Outcomes.” Working Paper No. 18949. National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2013. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w18949/w18949.pdf.

Chase, Michael S. “Xi in Command: Downsizing and Reorganizing the People’s Liberation Army.” Commentary, RAND Corporation, September 14, 2015. https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2015/09/xi-in-command-downsizing-and-reorganizing-the-peoples.html.

Choi, Jiwon, Ilyana Kuziemko, Ebonya L. Washington, and Gavin Wright. “Local Economic and Political Effects of Trade Deals: Evidence From NAFTA.” American Economic Review 114, no. 6 (2024): 1540–1575. https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20220425.

Dharmasankar, Sharada, and Bhash Mazumder. “Have Borrowers Recovered from Foreclosures During the Great Recession?” Chicago Fed Letter, no. 370 (June 2016): 1–5. https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2016/370.

Dyer, Jeffrey H. “Dedicated Assets: Japan’s Manufacturing Edge.” Harvard Business Review, November–December 1994. https://hbr.org/1994/11/dedicated-assets-japans-manufacturing-edge.

Feenstra, Robert C., and Akira Sasahara. “The ‘China Shock,’ Exports and US Employment: A Global Input-Output Analysis.” Working Paper No. 24022. National Bureau of Economic Research, November 2017. https://www.nber.org/papers/w24022.

Fisher, Dennis. “Japan Disaster Shakes Up Supply-Chain Strategies.” Harvard Business School Working Knowledge, May 31, 2011. https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/japan-disaster-shakes-up-supply-chain-strategies.

Fotak, Veljko, Hye Seung (Grace) Lee, William L. Megginson, and Jesus M. Salas. “The Political Economy of Tariff Exemption Grants.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, ahead of print, July 29, 2024. https://jfqa.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/23440-Tariff-Exemptions.pdf.

Grimmer, Justin, and William Marble. “Who Put Trump in the White House? Explaining the Contribution of Voting Blocs to Trump’s Victory.” Draft version, December 12, 2019. https://williammarble.co/docs/vb.pdf.

Harrigan, James. “The Impact of the Asia Crisis on US Industry: An Almost-Free Lunch?” Economic Policy Review—Federal Reserve Bank of New York 6, no. 3 (2000): 71–81. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/epr/00v06n3/0009harr.pdf.

Hellwig, Martin. “Germany and the Financial Crises 2007–2017.” Draft version, June 2018. https://www.riksbank.se/globalassets/media/konferenser/2018/germany-and-financial-crises-2007-2017.pdf.

Hicks, Michael, and Srikant Devaraj. “The Myth and the Reality of Manufacturing in America.” Center for Business and Economic Research, Ball State University, April 2017. https://conexus.cberdata.org/files/MfgReality.pdf.

Houseman, Susan. “Understanding the Decline of US Manufacturing Employment.” Working Paper No. 18-287. Upjohn Institute, 2018. https://research.upjohn.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1305&context=up_workingpapers.

Hufbauer, Gary Clyde, and Sean Lowry. “US Tire Tariffs: Saving Few Jobs at High Cost.” Policy Brief No. 12-9. Peterson Institute for International Economics, April 2012. https://www.piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/us-tire-tariffs-saving-few-jobs-high-cost.

Jaravel, Xavier, and Erick Sager. “What Are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the US and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models.” Working Paper No. 2019-68. Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2019.068.

Johnston, R. Barry, Salim M. Darbar, and Claudia Echeverria. “Sequencing Capital Account Liberalization: Lessons from the Experiences in Chile, Indonesia, Korea and Thailand.” Working Paper No. 97/157. International Monetary Fund, November 1997. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/wp97157.pdf.

Kahn, Lisa B., Lindsay Oldenski, and Geunyong Park. “Racial and Ethnic Inequality and the China Shock.” Working Paper No. 30646. National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2024. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w30646/w30646.pdf.

Kearney, Melissa, and Katharine Abraham. “Explaining the Decline in the US Employment-to-Population Ratio.” Working Paper No. 24333. National Bureau of Economic Research, February 2018. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w24333/w24333.pdf.

Kharas, Homi, Brian Pinto, and Sergei Ulatov. “An Analysis of Russia’s 1998 Meltdown: Fundamentals and Market Signals.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 1 (2001): 1–68. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2001/01/2001a_bpea_kharas.pdf.

Kreiner, Claus Thustrup, and Michael Svarer. “Danish Flexicurity: Rights and Duties.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 36, no. 4 (2022): 81–102. https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.36.4.81.

Lampton, David M. “The China Fantasy, Fantasy.” Review of The China Fantasy: How Our Leaders Explain Away Chinese Repression, by James Mann. China Quarterly (September 2007): 745–749. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305741007001786.

Li, Jie. “International System in Transition: From the Perspective of Financial Crisis.” China International Studies 16 (2009): 4–23.

Liu, Chiu-Wan. “The Chinese Fintech Boom and the Consolidation of Recentralized Authoritarian Capitalism.” Asian Survey 61, no. 6 (2021): 971–978. https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2021.1428111.

Lucas, Deborah. “Measuring the Cost of Bailouts.” Annual Review of Financial Economics 11 (2019): 85–108. https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-financial-110217-022532.

McCauley, Robert. “The 2008 Crisis: Transpacific or Transatlantic?” BIS Quarterly Review, December 2018. https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1812f.pdf.

Mead, Walter Russell. “The Tea Party and American Foreign Policy: What Populism Means for Globalism.” Foreign Affairs 90, no. 2 (2011): 28–44.

Miller, Jennifer. “Let’s Not Be Laughed at Anymore: Donald Trump and Japan from the 1980s to the Present.” Journal of American–East Asian Relations 25, no. 2 (2018): 138– 168. https://jennifermmiller.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/final-trump-article.pdf.

Morgan, Stephen L. “Status Threat, Material Interests, and the 2016 Presidential Vote.” Socius 4 (2018). https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10.1177/2378023118788217.

Mutz, Diana C. “Response to Morgan: On the Role of Status Threat and Material Interests in the 2016 Election.” Socius 4 (2018). https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10.1177/2378023118808619.

Mutz, Diana C. “Status Threat, Not Economic Hardship, Explains the 2016 Presidential Vote.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115, no. 19 (2018): E4330– E4339. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1718155115.

Osterholm, Michael T. “Preparing for the Next Pandemic.” Foreign Affairs 84, no. 4 (2005): 24–37.

Overholt, William H. “Another Outing for Myth-Based Diplomacy.” Global Asia 18, no. 4 (2023): 96–100. https://www.globalasia.org/v18no4/focus/another-outing-for-myth-based-diplomacy_william-h-overholt.

Overholt, William H. “The Great Betrayal: How America’s Elites Are Failing to Confront the Challenge of Trade Politics.” International Economy 31, no. 1 (2017): 33–35, 69. http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_W17_Overholt.pdf.

Park, Jooyoun. “Does Occupational Training by the Trade Adjustment Assistance Program Really Help Reemployment?” September 23, 2011. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1962169.

Pierce, Justin R., and Peter K. Schott. “The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment.” American Economic Review 106, no. 7 (2016): 1632–1662, online appendix. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20131578.

Pierce, Justin R., Peter K. Schott, and Cristina Tello-Trillo. “To Find Relative Earnings Gains After the China Shock, Look Outside Manufacturing and Upstream.” Working Paper No. 32438. National Bureau of Economic Research, May 2024. https://www.nber.org/papers/w32438.

Posen, Adam. “The Price of Nostalgia: America’s Self-Defeating Economic Retreat.” Foreign Affairs 100, no. 3 (2021): 28–43.

Pottinger, Matt, and Mike Gallagher. “No Substitute for Victory: America’s Competition with China Must Be Won, Not Managed.” Foreign Affairs 103, no. 3 (2024): 25–39.

Purcell, Patrick J. “Geographic Mobility and Annual Earnings in the United States.” Social Security Bulletin 80, no. 2 (2020). https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v80n2/v80n2p1.html.

Reynolds, Kara M., and John S. Palatucci. “Does Trade Adjustment Assistance Make a Difference?” Working Paper No. 2008-12. American University Department of Economics, August 2008. https://w.american.edu/cas/economics/repec/amu/workingpapers/2008-12.pdf.

Rodrik, Dani. “Why Does Globalization Fuel Populism? Economics, Culture, and the Rise of Right-Wing Populism.” Annual Review of Economics 13, no. 1 (2021): 133–170. https://drodrik.scholar.harvard.edu/files/dani-rodrik/files/why_does_globalization_fuel_populism.pdf.

Setser, Brad. “The Dangerous Myth of Deglobalization: Misperceptions of the Global Economy Are Driving Bad Policies.” Foreign Affairs, June 4, 2024. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/globalization-dangerous-myth-economy-brad-setser.

Shih, Willy C. “What Really Makes Toyota’s Production System Resilient.” Harvard Business Review, November 15, 2022. https://hbr.org/2022/11/what-really-makes-toyotas-production-system-resilient.

Silver, Laura, Christine Huang, and Laura Clancy. “How Global Public Opinion of China Has Shifted in the Xi Era.” Pew Research Center, September 28, 2022. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2022/09/28/how-global-public-opinion-of-china-has-shifted-in-the-xi-era/.

Sullivan, Jake. “The New Old Democrats.” Democracy, June 20, 2018. https://democracyjournal.org/arguments/the-new-old-democrats/.

Tan, Yeling. “How the WTO Changed China: The Mixed Legacy of Economic Engagement.” Foreign Affairs 100, no. 2 (2021): 90–102.

Wang Jisi et al. “Did America Get China Wrong? The Engagement Debate.” Foreign Affairs 97, no. 4 (2018): 183–195.

Wang, Zhi, Shang-Jin Wei, Xinding Yu, and Kunfu Zhu. “Re-Examining the Effects of Trading with China on Local Labor Markets: A Supply Chain Perspective.” Working Paper No. 24866. National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2018. https://www.nber.org/papers/w24886.

Warnock, Francis E., and Veronica Cacdac Warnock. “International Capital Flows and US Interest Rates.” Journal of International Money and Finance 28, no. 6 (2009). https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0261560609000461.

Wolff, Edward. “Household Wealth Trends in the United States, 1962 to 2016: Has Middle Class Wealth Recovered?” Working Paper No. 24085. National Bureau of Economic Research, November 2017. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w24085/w24085.pdf.

Wu, Mark. “The ‘China, Inc.’ Challenge to Global Trade Governance.” Harvard International Law Journal 57, no. 2 (2016): 261–324. https://www.law.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/WuMark.pdf.

分享這篇文章

出色文化相關文章

出色文化相關文章